TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067537
Played Sep 3Finished
Pavel Plakushchyi
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4111012811––––
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 54.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 61–47 Oleksandr Mishchenko Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 47 of their 108 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Plakushchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
61-47 in 108
Plakushchyi
Wrong
gap of 14 in 108, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1625 vs Mishchenko 1562
Plakushchyi
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 40% vs Mishchenko 20%
Plakushchyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 50% vs Mishchenko 30%
Plakushchyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi -3 · Mishchenko -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Plakushchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 1.73 / Mishchenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067537
Plakushchyi1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 44 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it82% 31 of 38
Mishchenko2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 90 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back13% 17 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlakushchyi5wins
AwayMishchenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyi80%4 of 5
AwayMishchenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Plakushchyi5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Plakushchyi7Mishchenko3n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S4Plakushchyi2Mishchenko6n = 8Mishchenko took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiMishchenkoP − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.635.7−0.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 681 vs 493 / 105044.8%47%305 / 681 vs 493 / 1050Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiPlakushchyi 1.73/Mishchenko 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.1%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi—41115113O. Mishchenko—1161371
WAug 26 · 18:25P. Plakushchyi—114117113O. Mishchenko—91151172
LAug 25 · 21:55P. Plakushchyi—811481O. Mishchenko—11611113
LAug 20 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi—1187111O. Mishchenko—61111133
WAug 20 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi—1111113O. Mishchenko—8870
LAug 19 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi—671151O. Mishchenko—11115113
LJul 30 · 02:55P. Plakushchyi—991181O. Mishchenko—11115113
WJul 29 · 02:55P. Plakushchyi—11511113O. Mishchenko—811691
WJul 20 · 03:25P. Plakushchyi—1111113O. Mishchenko—8870
LJul 19 · 04:25P. Plakushchyi—711781O. Mishchenko—11811113
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 7 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko1.30111111113P. Plakushchyi3.40137641LSep 7 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.36111114113P. Plakushchyi3.006131211LSep 7 · 14:40V. Marushchak2.001111113P. Plakushchyi1.738670LSep 7 · 12:40A. Yurkov1.3391111143P. Plakushchyi3.251188121LSep 7 · 10:40A. Hrabskyi1.73114411113P. Plakushchyi2.0071111892LSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732LSep 4 · 18:25P. Plakushchyi3.50411116122Y. Kryvorotko1.28115311143WSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi2.25101050O. Gavryshko1.571212113WSep 4 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi2.3811811113A. Chepurnyi1.53811761
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 18:55A. Chepurnyi1.441111113O. Mishchenko2.639850LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Kryvorotko1.221111113O. Mishchenko4.005840WSep 4 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.5711511482O. Mishchenko2.25611511113
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