TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084186
Played Sep 7Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118811811––
Oleksandr Dukhovenko
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Dukhovenko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Oleksandr Dukhovenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Dukhovenko at 60.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 81–85 Oleksandr Dukhovenko Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 81 of their 166 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dukhovenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
81-85 in 166
Dukhovenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 166, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1550 vs Dukhovenko 1894
Dukhovenko
Correct
both rated, 345 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 0% vs Dukhovenko 100%
Dukhovenko
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 20% vs Dukhovenko 90%
Dukhovenko
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko -5 · Dukhovenko +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Dukhovenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dukhovenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 2.38 / Dukhovenko 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Dukhovenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084186
Mishchenko2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog37% won 90 of 244
Down 0–1, comes back12% 17 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76
Dukhovenko1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 205 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it98% 127 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it91% 159 of 175
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko6wins
AwayDukhovenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMishchenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko80%4 of 5
AwayDukhovenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko5Dukhovenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Mishchenko3Dukhovenko7n = 10Dukhovenko took 7 of 10
S3Mishchenko5Dukhovenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Mishchenko5Dukhovenko2n = 7Mishchenko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoDukhovenkoM − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.737.7−3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoDukhovenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime491 / 1051 vs 534 / 85246.7%62.7%491 / 1051 vs 534 / 852Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DukhovenkoMishchenko 2.38/Dukhovenko 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Dukhovenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dukhovenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 02:25O. Mishchenko—1111113O. Dukhovenko—8890
LAug 10 · 24:25O. Mishchenko—8770O. Dukhovenko—1111113
WAug 8 · 21:25O. Mishchenko—11813113O. Dukhovenko—5111191
LAug 3 · 01:25O. Mishchenko—112661O. Dukhovenko—61111113
LJul 20 · 02:25O. Mishchenko—4880O. Dukhovenko—1111113
WJul 12 · 22:25O. Mishchenko—391111113O. Dukhovenko—11119482
WJun 27 · 23:55O. Mishchenko—611611163O. Dukhovenko—114118142
LJun 14 · 24:25O. Mishchenko—551131O. Dukhovenko—11119113
WJun 7 · 21:55O. Mishchenko—11139113O. Dukhovenko—9111171
WJun 5 · 13:25O. Mishchenko—11411153O. Dukhovenko—7119131
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 18:55A. Chepurnyi1.441111113O. Mishchenko2.639850LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Kryvorotko1.221111113O. Mishchenko4.005840WSep 4 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.5711511482O. Mishchenko2.25611511113WSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113
O. Dukhovenko10
LSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921WSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113WSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 21:25O. Gavryshko2.50981191O. Dukhovenko1.5011118113WSep 6 · 03:25Y. Kryvorotko1.80119981O. Dukhovenko1.9181111113WSep 6 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko1.50111169113O. Gavryshko2.5059111182WSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192WSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko1.5011511113A. Chepurnyi2.50511621WSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930LSep 4 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.5711511482O. Mishchenko2.25611511113
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