TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078958
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleksandr Dukhovenko
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119113––––
Ivan Demchenko
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Dukhovenko to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Dukhovenko above · Ivan Demchenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 49 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Oleksandr Dukhovenko at 79.4%
49 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Dukhovenko 14–2 Ivan Demchenko Ivan Demchenko has won 2 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Dukhovenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-2 in 16
Dukhovenko
Correct
gap of 12 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dukhovenko 1807 vs Demchenko 1703
Dukhovenko
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dukhovenko 60% vs Demchenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dukhovenko 60% vs Demchenko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dukhovenko +2 · Demchenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Dukhovenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Demchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDukhovenko 1.28 / Demchenko 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Dukhovenko)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13078958
Dukhovenko1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 201 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it98% 124 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it91% 155 of 171
Demchenko3.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 18 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back11% 6 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDukhovenko8wins
AwayDemchenko2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDukhovenko leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDukhovenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayDemchenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dukhovenko7Demchenko3n = 10Dukhovenko took 7 of 10
S2Dukhovenko7Demchenko3n = 10Dukhovenko took 7 of 10
S3Dukhovenko5Demchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Dukhovenko5Demchenko1n = 6Dukhovenko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDukhovenkoDemchenkoDukhovenko − DemchenkoBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.532.3+5.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDukhovenkoDemchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime531 / 852 vs 62 / 13662.3%45.6%531 / 852 vs 62 / 136Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DukhovenkoDukhovenko 1.28/Demchenko 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Dukhovenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dukhovenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 14:25O. Dukhovenko—85100I. Demchenko—1111123
WAug 17 · 04:25O. Dukhovenko—1111113I. Demchenko—5870
WAug 16 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko—8101211113I. Demchenko—111210622
LAug 7 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko—118981I. Demchenko—81111113
WAug 2 · 23:25O. Dukhovenko—111111113I. Demchenko—691351
WAug 1 · 22:55O. Dukhovenko—11112113I. Demchenko—581181
WJul 13 · 04:25O. Dukhovenko—1111113I. Demchenko—8690
WJul 12 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko—1111113I. Demchenko—8990
WJul 6 · 04:25O. Dukhovenko—111115113I. Demchenko—691761
WJul 4 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko—51111113I. Demchenko—119961
O. Dukhovenko10
LSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921WSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113WSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113WSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 21:25O. Gavryshko2.50981191O. Dukhovenko1.5011118113WSep 6 · 03:25Y. Kryvorotko1.80119981O. Dukhovenko1.9181111113WSep 6 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko1.50111169113O. Gavryshko2.5059111182WSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192WSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko1.5011511113A. Chepurnyi2.50511621WSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732
I. Demchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101WSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4011611113I. Demchenko2.75911781LAug 21 · 19:03Y. Kryvorotko1.44111289113I. Demchenko2.63810111142
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