TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084216
Played Sep 7Finished
Oleg Gavryshko
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111191181210––
Ivan Demchenko
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 77.2% is still 77.2%
Graded at full timeOleg Gavryshko to win
77.2%
77.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Gavryshko above · Ivan Demchenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Oleg Gavryshko at 77.2%
78 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Gavryshko 12–1 Ivan Demchenko Ivan Demchenko has won 1 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Gavryshko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-1 in 13
Gavryshko
Correct
gap of 11 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gavryshko 1791 vs Demchenko 1697
Gavryshko
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gavryshko 0% vs Demchenko 60%
Demchenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gavryshko 40% vs Demchenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gavryshko -5 · Demchenko +2
Gavryshko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Gavryshko) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Demchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGavryshko 1.36 / Demchenko 3.00
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Gavryshko)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13084216
Gavryshko1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 81 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it85% 71 of 84
Demchenko3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog23% won 18 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back10% 6 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGavryshko9wins
AwayDemchenko1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderGavryshko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGavryshko100%7 of 7
AwayDemchenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gavryshko7Demchenko3n = 10Gavryshko took 7 of 10
S2Gavryshko7Demchenko3n = 10Gavryshko took 7 of 10
S3Gavryshko7Demchenko3n = 10Gavryshko took 7 of 10
S4Gavryshko5Demchenko1n = 6Gavryshko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGavryshkoDemchenkoG − DBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.431.9+5.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGavryshkoDemchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime330 / 623 vs 65 / 14553%44.8%330 / 623 vs 65 / 145Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.235.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GavryshkoGavryshko 1.36/Demchenko 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Gavryshko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gavryshko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko—61111123I. Demchenko—1198101
LSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko—127110I. Demchenko—1411133
WAug 16 · 22:55O. Gavryshko—11119113I. Demchenko—971181
WAug 15 · 21:25O. Gavryshko—11112143I. Demchenko—6111121
WAug 7 · 20:25O. Gavryshko—11311113I. Demchenko—911981
WAug 3 · 24:25O. Gavryshko—1111113I. Demchenko—5680
WAug 2 · 24:55O. Gavryshko—1311113I. Demchenko—11580
WJul 12 · 21:55O. Gavryshko—1111113I. Demchenko—9850
WJul 12 · 02:25O. Gavryshko—11811113I. Demchenko—611661
WJul 5 · 21:55O. Gavryshko—511118113I. Demchenko—11991172
O. Gavryshko10
LSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113LSep 6 · 22:55O. Gavryshko1.7325670M. Makienko2.002711113LSep 6 · 21:25O. Gavryshko2.50981191O. Dukhovenko1.5011118113LSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko1.50111169113O. Gavryshko2.5059111182WSep 6 · 24:25Y. Kryvorotko1.6111561272O. Gavryshko2.205111110113WSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870WSep 5 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi1.8391170O. Gavryshko1.831113113WSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191
I. Demchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921WSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4011611113I. Demchenko2.75911781LSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930LAug 21 · 19:03Y. Kryvorotko1.44111289113I. Demchenko2.63810111142
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