TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084447
Played Sep 6Finished
Ivan Demchenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1171315711511––
Artem Chepurnyi
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Demchenko above · Artem Chepurnyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 80 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 66.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Demchenko 1–8 Artem Chepurnyi Ivan Demchenko has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:28What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Chepurnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-8 in 9
Chepurnyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Demchenko 1692 vs Chepurnyi 1742
Chepurnyi
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Demchenko 20% vs Chepurnyi 40%
Chepurnyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Demchenko 40% vs Chepurnyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Demchenko +1 · Chepurnyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Chepurnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chepurnyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDemchenko 2.50 / Chepurnyi 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084447
Demchenko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog23% won 18 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back10% 6 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Chepurnyi1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite65% won 165 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it93% 83 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it82% 129 of 157
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeDemchenko1wins
AwayChepurnyi8wins
1 of 9 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 8–1, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDemchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChepurnyi85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Demchenko2Chepurnyi7n = 9Chepurnyi took 7 of 9
S2Demchenko1Chepurnyi8n = 9Chepurnyi took 8 of 9
S3Demchenko3Chepurnyi6n = 9Chepurnyi took 6 of 9
S4Demchenko0Chepurnyi5n = 5Chepurnyi took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away444%
These 9 meetings
MetricDemchenkoChepurnyiD − CBasisWins18−7in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match28.738.3−9.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDemchenkoChepurnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 141 vs 560 / 94444.7%59.3%63 / 141 vs 560 / 944Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiDemchenko 2.50/Chepurnyi 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 17 · 02:55I. Demchenko—113931A. Chepurnyi—51111113
LAug 16 · 24:25I. Demchenko—101060A. Chepurnyi—1212113
LAug 7 · 18:25I. Demchenko—7740A. Chepurnyi—1111113
LAug 2 · 22:25I. Demchenko—871151A. Chepurnyi—11119113
LAug 2 · 02:55I. Demchenko—119771A. Chepurnyi—81111113
LJun 29 · 04:25I. Demchenko—6121141A. Chepurnyi—11148113
LJun 16 · 19:55I. Demchenko—8670A. Chepurnyi—1111113
LMay 30 · 22:55I. Demchenko—9570A. Chepurnyi—1111113
WMay 29 · 17:25I. Demchenko—1211113113A. Chepurnyi—14761182
I. Demchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101WSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113WSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4011611113I. Demchenko2.75911781LSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930LAug 21 · 19:03Y. Kryvorotko1.44111289113I. Demchenko2.63810111142
A. Chepurnyi10
WSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661WSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113WSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113LSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172LSep 6 · 01:55Y. Kryvorotko1.611311113A. Chepurnyi2.2011820WSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko1.5011511113A. Chepurnyi2.50511621LSep 5 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi1.8391170O. Gavryshko1.831113113WSep 4 · 20:25Y. Kryvorotko1.61118251A. Chepurnyi2.2061111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.