TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084174
Played Sep 7Finished
Ivan Demchenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116119––––
Mykhailo Makienko
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Makienko to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingIvan Demchenko above · Mykhailo Makienko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 57 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Mykhailo Makienko at 59.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Demchenko 2–4 Mykhailo Makienko Ivan Demchenko has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Makienko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Makienko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Demchenko 1689 vs Makienko 1781
Makienko
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Demchenko 40% vs Makienko 60%
Makienko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Demchenko 30% vs Makienko 70%
Makienko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Demchenko +1 · Makienko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Makienko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDemchenko 2.63 / Makienko 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Makienko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084174
Demchenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog23% won 18 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back10% 6 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Makienko1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 47 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDemchenko2wins
AwayMakienko4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderMakienko leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDemchenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayMakienko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Demchenko3Makienko3n = 6split evenly
S2Demchenko3Makienko3n = 6split evenly
S3Demchenko4Makienko2n = 6Demchenko took 4 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricDemchenkoMakienkoD − MBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match31.835.3−3.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDemchenkoMakienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 143 vs 66 / 10244.8%64.7%64 / 143 vs 66 / 102Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakienkoDemchenko 2.63/Makienko 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Makienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Demchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko—10770M. Makienko—1211113
LAug 19 · 21:25I. Demchenko—81111292M. Makienko—119611113
LAug 19 · 04:25I. Demchenko—3340M. Makienko—1111113
LAug 13 · 03:55I. Demchenko—126121182M. Makienko—10111013113
WAug 5 · 21:25I. Demchenko—1112113M. Makienko—61080
WAug 5 · 04:25I. Demchenko—1111113M. Makienko—4950
I. Demchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4011611113I. Demchenko2.75911781LSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930LAug 21 · 19:03Y. Kryvorotko1.44111289113I. Demchenko2.63810111142
M. Makienko10
LSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661LSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113WSep 6 · 22:55O. Gavryshko1.7325670M. Makienko2.002711113WSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172WSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192LSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870WSep 5 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.8081113972M. Makienko1.911181111113WSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113
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