TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079100
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleksandr Dukhovenko
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181210611711119
Mykhailo Makienko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Dukhovenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Dukhovenko above · Mykhailo Makienko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Oleksandr Dukhovenko at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Dukhovenko 3–1 Mykhailo Makienko Mykhailo Makienko has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dukhovenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Dukhovenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dukhovenko 1843 vs Makienko 1759
Dukhovenko
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dukhovenko 80% vs Makienko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dukhovenko 70% vs Makienko 90%
Makienko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dukhovenko +4 · Makienko -1
Dukhovenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Dukhovenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makienko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDukhovenko 1.67 / Makienko 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Dukhovenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079100
Dukhovenko1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 201 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it98% 124 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it91% 155 of 171
Makienko2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog63% won 15 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back36% 4 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDukhovenko3wins
AwayMakienko1wins
3 of 4 to a deciderDukhovenko leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDukhovenko75%3 of 4
AwayMakienkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dukhovenko4Makienko0n = 4Dukhovenko took 4 of 4
S2Dukhovenko4Makienko0n = 4Dukhovenko took 4 of 4
S3Dukhovenko1Makienko3n = 4Makienko took 3 of 4
S4Dukhovenko0Makienko3n = 3Makienko took 3 of 3
S5Dukhovenko2Makienko1n = 3Dukhovenko took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDukhovenkoMakienkoD − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match45.242.0+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDukhovenkoMakienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime530 / 850 vs 63 / 9862.4%64.3%530 / 850 vs 63 / 98Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DukhovenkoDukhovenko 1.67/Makienko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Dukhovenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dukhovenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko—111267113M. Makienko—810111192
LAug 29 · 22:25O. Dukhovenko—1111111082M. Makienko—881312113
WAug 28 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko—111157113M. Makienko—74111142
WAug 22 · 22:55O. Dukhovenko—1611113M. Makienko—14790
O. Dukhovenko10
LSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921WSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113WSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113WSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 21:25O. Gavryshko2.50981191O. Dukhovenko1.5011118113WSep 6 · 03:25Y. Kryvorotko1.80119981O. Dukhovenko1.9181111113WSep 6 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko1.50111169113O. Gavryshko2.5059111182WSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko1.5011511113A. Chepurnyi2.50511621WSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930WSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732
M. Makienko10
LSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661LSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113LSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 22:55O. Gavryshko1.7325670M. Makienko2.002711113WSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172WSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870WSep 5 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.8081113972M. Makienko1.911181111113WSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113
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