TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084625
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleg Gavryshko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
2527611711––––
Mykhailo Makienko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleg Gavryshko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleg Gavryshko above · Mykhailo Makienko below
Set 1 · 25-27
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 87 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Oleg Gavryshko at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Gavryshko 2–2 Mykhailo Makienko Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gavryshko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gavryshko 1794 vs Makienko 1781
Gavryshko
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gavryshko 40% vs Makienko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gavryshko 50% vs Makienko 70%
Makienko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gavryshko -3 · Makienko +1
Gavryshko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Gavryshko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gavryshko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGavryshko 1.73 / Makienko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Gavryshko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084625
Gavryshko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 81 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it85% 71 of 84
Makienko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog59% won 16 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back31% 4 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGavryshko2wins
AwayMakienko2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gavryshko2Makienko2n = 4split evenly
S2Gavryshko1Makienko3n = 4Makienko took 3 of 4
S3Gavryshko2Makienko2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricGavryshkoMakienkoG − MBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.234.5−1.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGavryshkoMakienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime331 / 623 vs 66 / 10253.1%64.7%331 / 623 vs 66 / 102Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GavryshkoGavryshko 1.73/Makienko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Gavryshko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Makienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 6 · 22:55O. Gavryshko—25670M. Makienko—2711113
WSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko—1211113M. Makienko—10870
LAug 30 · 24:25O. Gavryshko—5870M. Makienko—1111113
WAug 28 · 16:55O. Gavryshko—11811113M. Makienko—511691
O. Gavryshko10
LSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123WSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101LSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113LSep 6 · 21:25O. Gavryshko2.50981191O. Dukhovenko1.5011118113LSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko1.50111169113O. Gavryshko2.5059111182WSep 6 · 24:25Y. Kryvorotko1.6111561272O. Gavryshko2.205111110113WSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870WSep 5 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi1.8391170O. Gavryshko1.831113113WSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191
M. Makienko10
LSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661LSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113LSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172WSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192LSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870WSep 5 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.8081113972M. Makienko1.911181111113WSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113
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