TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067741
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113911211511––
Mykhailo Makienko
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:48 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Makienko to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Mykhailo Makienko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 63 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Mykhailo Makienko at 75.9%
63 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 7–8 Mykhailo Makienko Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Makienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1403 vs Makienko 1780
Makienko
Correct
both rated, 377 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Makienko 100%
Makienko
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 30% vs Makienko 100%
Makienko
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -2 · Makienko +5
Makienko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Makienko) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makienko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 3.75 / Makienko 1.25
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Makienko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13067741
Kovalchuk3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 84 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 84
Makienko1.25
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 41 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk4wins
AwayMakienko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMakienko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayMakienko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk3Makienko7n = 10Makienko took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk3Makienko7n = 10Makienko took 7 of 10
S3Kovalchuk2Makienko8n = 10Makienko took 8 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Makienko2n = 6Kovalchuk took 4 of 6
S5Kovalchuk3Makienko1n = 4Kovalchuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukMakienkoK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.038.8−2.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukMakienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 795 vs 62 / 9541.9%65.3%333 / 795 vs 62 / 95Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakienkoKovalchuk 3.75/Makienko 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Makienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Makienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk—119251M. Makienko—31111113
WAug 25 · 23:25O. Kovalchuk—1161011113M. Makienko—81112672
LAug 20 · 18:55O. Kovalchuk—911110M. Makienko—1113133
LAug 19 · 24:25O. Kovalchuk—5480M. Makienko—1111113
LAug 12 · 23:55O. Kovalchuk—8990M. Makienko—1111113
LAug 11 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk—9790M. Makienko—1111113
WAug 6 · 18:25O. Kovalchuk—811119113M. Makienko—11871182
WAug 6 · 24:25O. Kovalchuk—911811113M. Makienko—11911962
LAug 5 · 24:25O. Kovalchuk—61191182M. Makienko—116117113
WJul 30 · 18:55O. Kovalchuk—11612113M. Makienko—5111091
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541LSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk2.63811511113O. Mishchenko1.4411911962LSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781LSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372LSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692LSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.444111061O. Kovalchuk2.6311512113LSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 20:25O. Mishchenko1.53111070O. Kovalchuk2.381312113
M. Makienko10
LSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661LSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113LSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 22:55O. Gavryshko1.7325670M. Makienko2.002711113WSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172WSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192LSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870WSep 5 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.8081113972M. Makienko1.911181111113
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