TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067591
Played Sep 3Finished
Eduard Rubtsov
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111210115114––
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr V Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingEduard Rubtsov above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 72 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Oleksandr V Kovalchuk at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Rubtsov 104–107 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Eduard Rubtsov has won 104 of their 211 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:20What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
104-107 in 211
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 211, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rubtsov 1437 vs Kovalchuk 1418
Rubtsov
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rubtsov 40% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Rubtsov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rubtsov 50% vs Kovalchuk 30%
Rubtsov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rubtsov +2 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRubtsov 2.00 / Kovalchuk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13067591
Rubtsov2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 98 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 114
Kovalchuk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 65 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it73% 46 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRubtsov5wins
AwayKovalchuk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRubtsov83.3%5 of 6
AwayKovalchuk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rubtsov6Kovalchuk4n = 10Rubtsov took 6 of 10
S2Rubtsov2Kovalchuk8n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S3Rubtsov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Rubtsov3Kovalchuk3n = 6split evenly
S5Rubtsov3Kovalchuk1n = 4Rubtsov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRubtsovKovalchukR − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.239.2−2.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRubtsovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 773 vs 333 / 79338.7%42%299 / 773 vs 333 / 793Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukRubtsov 2.00/Kovalchuk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rubtsov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 21:25E. Rubtsov—1311113O. Kovalchuk—11680
WAug 20 · 17:25E. Rubtsov—138119113O. Kovalchuk—111191162
WAug 19 · 03:25E. Rubtsov—1112116123O. Kovalchuk—614111102
LAug 13 · 15:25E. Rubtsov—79111182O. Kovalchuk—111199113
LAug 13 · 03:25E. Rubtsov—58120O. Kovalchuk—1111143
LAug 11 · 23:25E. Rubtsov—11890O. Kovalchuk—1311113
LAug 6 · 15:25E. Rubtsov—1110741O. Kovalchuk—61211113
WAug 6 · 02:25E. Rubtsov—12115113O. Kovalchuk—1061171
LAug 5 · 01:55E. Rubtsov—61130O. Kovalchuk—1113113
WJul 30 · 16:55E. Rubtsov—112811113O. Kovalchuk—81111972
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov3.258680P. Plakushchyi1.331111113LSep 3 · 24:25E. Rubtsov3.251311281O. Mishchenko1.3315911113LSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk2.63811511113O. Mishchenko1.4411911962LSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781LSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372LSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692LSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.444111061O. Kovalchuk2.6311512113LSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 20:25O. Mishchenko1.53111070O. Kovalchuk2.381312113
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