TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067357
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811119511119116
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 92 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 67.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 67–97 Oleksandr Mishchenko Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 67 of their 164 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:27What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mishchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-97 in 164
Mishchenko
Wrong
gap of 30 in 164, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1403 vs Mishchenko 1603
Mishchenko
Wrong
both rated, 201 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Mishchenko 60%
Mishchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Mishchenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -4 · Mishchenko -1
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Mishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.63 / Mishchenko 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Mishchenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067357
Kovalchuk2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 84 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 84
Mishchenko1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 126 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it91% 86 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it84% 108 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayMishchenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk75%3 of 4
AwayMishchenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk4Mishchenko6n = 10Mishchenko took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk3Mishchenko7n = 10Mishchenko took 7 of 10
S3Kovalchuk2Mishchenko8n = 10Mishchenko took 8 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Mishchenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Kovalchuk5Mishchenko0n = 5Kovalchuk took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukMishchenkoK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.040.9−4.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 791 vs 493 / 104742%47.1%332 / 791 vs 493 / 1047Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoKovalchuk 2.63/Mishchenko 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk—111177113O. Mishchenko—76111162
WAug 19 · 01:55O. Kovalchuk—791111113O. Mishchenko—11118872
LAug 13 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk—116551O. Mishchenko—81111113
LAug 13 · 02:25O. Kovalchuk—5470O. Mishchenko—1111113
WAug 12 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk—114511113O. Mishchenko—61111732
LAug 6 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk—7711101O. Mishchenko—11118123
WAug 5 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk—1211312123O. Mishchenko—1471110102
LAug 4 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk—411781O. Mishchenko—11511113
LJul 30 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk—4480O. Mishchenko—1111113
WJul 29 · 21:55O. Kovalchuk—118611123O. Mishchenko—511119102
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541LSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781LSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372LSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692LSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.444111061O. Kovalchuk2.6311512113LSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 20:25O. Mishchenko1.53111070O. Kovalchuk2.381312113
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 18:55A. Chepurnyi1.441111113O. Mishchenko2.639850LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 2 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.444111061O. Kovalchuk2.6311512113LAug 26 · 20:25O. Mishchenko1.53111070O. Kovalchuk2.381312113
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