TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067681
Played Sep 3Finished
Pavel Plakushchyi
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611118117118––
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:40 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 64.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 68–34 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 34 of their 102 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:40What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Plakushchyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
68-34 in 102
Plakushchyi
Correct
gap of 34 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1652 vs Kovalchuk 1412
Plakushchyi
Correct
both rated, 239 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 60% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Plakushchyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 60% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Plakushchyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi +2 · Kovalchuk -3
Kovalchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Plakushchyi) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 1.57 / Kovalchuk 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13067681
Plakushchyi1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 44 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it82% 31 of 38
Kovalchuk2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 84 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlakushchyi9wins
AwayKovalchuk1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyi80%4 of 5
AwayKovalchuk0%0 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Plakushchyi6Kovalchuk4n = 10Plakushchyi took 6 of 10
S3Plakushchyi10Kovalchuk0n = 10Plakushchyi took 10 of 10
S4Plakushchyi6Kovalchuk2n = 8Plakushchyi took 6 of 8
S5Plakushchyi2Kovalchuk1n = 3Plakushchyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiKovalchukP − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.230.4+11.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 677 vs 332 / 79044.9%42%304 / 677 vs 332 / 790Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiPlakushchyi 1.57/Kovalchuk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi—9111111113O. Kovalchuk—11981372
WAug 26 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi—1111113O. Kovalchuk—2880
WAug 26 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi—121111113O. Kovalchuk—1013181
WAug 24 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi—61111113O. Kovalchuk—116341
WAug 20 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi—81111113O. Kovalchuk—119661
LAug 18 · 21:25P. Plakushchyi—11711782O. Kovalchuk—611711113
WJul 30 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi—111111113O. Kovalchuk—813641
WJul 29 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi—681111113O. Kovalchuk—11113372
WJul 19 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi—101111113O. Kovalchuk—122151
WJul 19 · 02:55P. Plakushchyi—1111113O. Kovalchuk—3780
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732LSep 4 · 18:25P. Plakushchyi3.50411116122Y. Kryvorotko1.28115311143WSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi2.25101050O. Gavryshko1.571212113WSep 4 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi2.3811811113A. Chepurnyi1.53811761LSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113LSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672LSep 3 · 16:55P. Plakushchyi3.75581111102M. Makienko1.25111184123LSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070WSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541LSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk2.63811511113O. Mishchenko1.4411911962LSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372LSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692LSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.444111061O. Kovalchuk2.6311512113LSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 20:25O. Mishchenko1.53111070O. Kovalchuk2.381312113
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