TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073928
Played Sep 4Finished
Pavel Plakushchyi
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118811117116––
Artem Chepurnyi
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:52 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Artem Chepurnyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 61.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 37–46 Artem Chepurnyi Pavel Plakushchyi has won 37 of their 83 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chepurnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-46 in 83
Chepurnyi
Wrong
gap of 9 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1607 vs Chepurnyi 1746
Chepurnyi
Wrong
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 20% vs Chepurnyi 0%
Plakushchyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 40% vs Chepurnyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi -4 · Chepurnyi -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Chepurnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chepurnyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 2.38 / Chepurnyi 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13073928
Plakushchyi2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 86 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back16% 24 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 89
Chepurnyi1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite66% won 163 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it93% 82 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it82% 128 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlakushchyi7wins
AwayChepurnyi3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyi100%5 of 5
AwayChepurnyi60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi5Chepurnyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Plakushchyi8Chepurnyi2n = 10Plakushchyi took 8 of 10
S3Plakushchyi5Chepurnyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Plakushchyi3Chepurnyi3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiChepurnyiP − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.234.3+1.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiChepurnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 682 vs 563 / 94944.7%59.3%305 / 682 vs 563 / 949Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiPlakushchyi 2.38/Chepurnyi 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.4%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 17 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi—512118113A. Chepurnyi—111091192
WJun 21 · 21:25P. Plakushchyi—11118113A. Chepurnyi—571141
WJun 21 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi—118911123A. Chepurnyi—511117102
WJun 15 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi—1111133A. Chepurnyi—68110
WMay 24 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi—21111113A. Chepurnyi—115691
WMay 24 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi—1111123A. Chepurnyi—76100
LMay 22 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi—811671A. Chepurnyi—11911113
WMay 18 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi—1112113A. Chepurnyi—81090
LMay 16 · 23:25P. Plakushchyi—9950A. Chepurnyi—1111113
LMay 15 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi—911191A. Chepurnyi—11811113
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732LSep 4 · 18:25P. Plakushchyi3.50411116122Y. Kryvorotko1.28115311143WSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi2.25101050O. Gavryshko1.571212113LSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113LSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672LSep 3 · 16:55P. Plakushchyi3.75581111102M. Makienko1.25111184123LSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070WSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781WSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372
A. Chepurnyi10
WSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661WSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113WSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113LSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172LSep 6 · 01:55Y. Kryvorotko1.611311113A. Chepurnyi2.2011820WSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko1.5011511113A. Chepurnyi2.50511621LSep 5 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi1.8391170O. Gavryshko1.831113113
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