TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067351
Played Sep 3Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115311911116117
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 85 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 75.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 0–2 Pavel Plakushchyi Serhii Ponomarenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:27What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1881 vs Plakushchyi 1629
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 252 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Plakushchyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 70% vs Plakushchyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +1 · Plakushchyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.20 / Plakushchyi 4.33
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13067351
Ponomarenko1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite88% won 313 of 357
Up 2–0, closes it100% 208 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it95% 259 of 273
Plakushchyi4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 86 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back16% 24 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePonomarenko0wins
AwayPlakushchyi2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoPlakushchyiPonomarenko − PlakushchyiBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match33.038.5−5.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime782 / 870 vs 305 / 68089.9%44.9%782 / 870 vs 305 / 680Avg sets wonper match2.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.20/Plakushchyi 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.1%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 26 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko—71111682P. Plakushchyi—119211113
LAug 25 · 23:55S. Ponomarenko—6890P. Plakushchyi—1111113
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113WSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113LSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732LSep 4 · 18:25P. Plakushchyi3.50411116122Y. Kryvorotko1.28115311143WSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi2.25101050O. Gavryshko1.571212113WSep 4 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi2.3811811113A. Chepurnyi1.53811761LSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113LSep 3 · 16:55P. Plakushchyi3.75581111102M. Makienko1.25111184123LSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070WSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781LSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113
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