TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067379
Played Sep 3Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511811––––
Mykhailo Makienko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Makienko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Mykhailo Makienko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Mykhailo Makienko at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 0–2 Mykhailo Makienko Serhii Ponomarenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Makienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1879 vs Makienko 1764
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Makienko 100%
Makienko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Makienko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +1 · Makienko +5
Makienko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Makienko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makienko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.00 / Makienko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Makienko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13067379
Ponomarenko2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Makienko1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 41 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePonomarenko0wins
AwayMakienko2wins
Makienko leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoMakienkoP − MBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match20.034.0−14.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoMakienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 869 vs 59 / 9289.9%64.1%781 / 869 vs 59 / 92Avg sets wonper match2.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakienkoPonomarenko 2.00/Makienko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Makienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Makienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko—8580M. Makienko—1111113
LAug 25 · 22:25S. Ponomarenko—62110M. Makienko—1111133
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113WSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113LSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690
M. Makienko10
LSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661LSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113LSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 22:55O. Gavryshko1.7325670M. Makienko2.002711113WSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172WSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192LSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870WSep 5 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.8081113972M. Makienko1.911181111113
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