TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067560
Played Sep 3Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118118––––
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
6.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched — 89.4% is still 89.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
89.4%
89.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 57 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 89.4%
57 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:10What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1899 vs Mishchenko 1608
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 291 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Mishchenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Mishchenko 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Mishchenko +3
Mishchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 89% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.10 / Mishchenko 6.50
Signal prob.88% / 12%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13067560
Ponomarenko1.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite88% won 313 of 357
Up 2–0, closes it100% 208 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it95% 259 of 273
Mishchenko6.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 90 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back13% 17 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime785 / 872 vs 493 / 104690%47.1%785 / 872 vs 493 / 1046Avg sets wonper match2.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.10/Mishchenko 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.3%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113WSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113LSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 18:55A. Chepurnyi1.441111113O. Mishchenko2.639850LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Kryvorotko1.221111113O. Mishchenko4.005840WSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.