TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061109
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
7.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118411117––
Serhii Ponomarenko
Away
1.08
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:32 and never touched — 89.4% is still 89.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
89.4%
89.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 72 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 89.4%
72 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:32What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1586 vs Ponomarenko 1926
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 341 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 40% vs Ponomarenko 80%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 40% vs Ponomarenko 80%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko +2 · Ponomarenko +3
Ponomarenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (80%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 7.00 / Ponomarenko 1.08
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13061109
Mishchenko7.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 90 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back13% 17 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 75
Ponomarenko1.08
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite88% won 313 of 357
Up 2–0, closes it100% 210 of 211
Up 1–0, closes it95% 261 of 275
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 1045 vs 785 / 87147.1%90.1%492 / 1045 vs 785 / 871Avg sets wonper match1.92.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoMishchenko 7.00/Ponomarenko 1.08
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
89.4%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mishchenko won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 18:55A. Chepurnyi1.441111113O. Mishchenko2.639850LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Kryvorotko1.221111113O. Mishchenko4.005840WSep 4 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.5711511482O. Mishchenko2.25611511113
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113WSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113LSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690
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