TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061158
Played Sep 3Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.03
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811116611116119
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Away
10.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 92.4% is still 92.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
92.4%
92.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 90 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 92.4%
90 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 2–0 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.03 (91%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1925 vs Kovalchuk 1419
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 506 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +2 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (10%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.03 / Kovalchuk 10.00
Signal prob.92% / 8%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+1.7pp
Setka Cup · #13061158
Ponomarenko1.03
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite88% won 313 of 357
Up 2–0, closes it100% 210 of 211
Up 1–0, closes it95% 261 of 275
Kovalchuk10.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 83 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePonomarenko2wins
AwayKovalchuk0wins
Ponomarenko leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKovalchukP − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.029.0+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime784 / 870 vs 332 / 78890.1%42.1%784 / 870 vs 332 / 788Avg sets wonper match2.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.03/Kovalchuk 10.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.4%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 26 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko—11811113O. Kovalchuk—711991
WAug 26 · 03:55S. Ponomarenko—1111113O. Kovalchuk—8590
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113WSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113LSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541LSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk2.63811511113O. Mishchenko1.4411911962LSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781LSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372LSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.444111061O. Kovalchuk2.6311512113LSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 20:25O. Mishchenko1.53111070O. Kovalchuk2.381312113
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