TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061359
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111151012611––
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 67.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 97–67 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 67 of their 164 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mishchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
97-67 in 164
Mishchenko
Wrong
gap of 30 in 164, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1566 vs Kovalchuk 1426
Mishchenko
Wrong
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 0% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 30% vs Kovalchuk 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko -5 · Kovalchuk -1
Mishchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Mishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 1.44 / Kovalchuk 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Mishchenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13061359
Mishchenko1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 124 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it91% 86 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it84% 106 of 126
Kovalchuk2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 83 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko5wins
AwayKovalchuk5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayKovalchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko6Kovalchuk4n = 10Mishchenko took 6 of 10
S2Mishchenko7Kovalchuk3n = 10Mishchenko took 7 of 10
S3Mishchenko8Kovalchuk2n = 10Mishchenko took 8 of 10
S4Mishchenko4Kovalchuk4n = 8split evenly
S5Mishchenko0Kovalchuk5n = 5Kovalchuk took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoKovalchukM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.936.0+4.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime490 / 1043 vs 332 / 78747%42.2%490 / 1043 vs 332 / 787Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoMishchenko 1.44/Kovalchuk 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 15:25O. Mishchenko—76111162O. Kovalchuk—111177113
LAug 19 · 01:55O. Mishchenko—11118872O. Kovalchuk—791111113
WAug 13 · 20:25O. Mishchenko—81111113O. Kovalchuk—116551
WAug 13 · 02:25O. Mishchenko—1111113O. Kovalchuk—5470
LAug 12 · 03:55O. Mishchenko—61111732O. Kovalchuk—114511113
WAug 6 · 20:25O. Mishchenko—11118123O. Kovalchuk—7711101
LAug 5 · 22:25O. Mishchenko—1471110102O. Kovalchuk—1211312123
WAug 4 · 21:25O. Mishchenko—11511113O. Kovalchuk—411781
WJul 30 · 20:25O. Mishchenko—1111113O. Kovalchuk—4480
LJul 29 · 21:55O. Mishchenko—511119102O. Kovalchuk—118611123
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 18:55A. Chepurnyi1.441111113O. Mishchenko2.639850LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Kryvorotko1.221111113O. Mishchenko4.005840WSep 4 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.5711511482O. Mishchenko2.25611511113
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541LSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk2.63811511113O. Mishchenko1.4411911962LSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781LSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372LSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692LSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111LSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 20:25O. Mishchenko1.53111070O. Kovalchuk2.381312113
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