TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067428
Played Sep 3Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.04
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171412117––––
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Away
9.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:48 and never touched — 92.4% is still 92.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
92.4%
92.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 62 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 92.4%
62 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 2–0 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.04 (90%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1879 vs Kovalchuk 1420
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 458 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 70% vs Kovalchuk 30%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Kovalchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 92% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (96%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.04 / Kovalchuk 9.00
Signal prob.92% / 8%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067428
Ponomarenko1.04
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite88% won 313 of 357
Up 2–0, closes it100% 208 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it95% 259 of 273
Kovalchuk9.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 84 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePonomarenko2wins
AwayKovalchuk0wins
Ponomarenko leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKovalchukP − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.029.0+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 869 vs 333 / 79289.9%42.1%781 / 869 vs 333 / 792Avg sets wonper match2.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.04/Kovalchuk 9.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.8%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 26 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko—11811113O. Kovalchuk—711991
WAug 26 · 03:55S. Ponomarenko—1111113O. Kovalchuk—8590
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113WSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113LSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk2.63811511113O. Mishchenko1.4411911962LSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781LSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372LSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692LSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.444111061O. Kovalchuk2.6311512113LSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 20:25O. Mishchenko1.53111070O. Kovalchuk2.381312113
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