TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061189
Played Sep 3Finished
Pavel Plakushchyi
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1151012911811––
Serhii Ponomarenko
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:03 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 75.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 2–0 Serhii Ponomarenko Serhii Ponomarenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1638 vs Ponomarenko 1920
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 282 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 80% vs Ponomarenko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 40% vs Ponomarenko 80%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi -1 · Ponomarenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 3.75 / Ponomarenko 1.25
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13061189
Plakushchyi3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 86 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back16% 24 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 88
Ponomarenko1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite88% won 313 of 357
Up 2–0, closes it100% 210 of 211
Up 1–0, closes it95% 261 of 275
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePlakushchyi2wins
AwayPonomarenko0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiPonomarenkoPlakushchyi − PonomarenkoBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match38.533.0+5.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime302 / 674 vs 783 / 86944.8%90.1%302 / 674 vs 783 / 869Avg sets wonper match1.82.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPlakushchyi 3.75/Ponomarenko 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 26 · 19:25P. Plakushchyi—119211113S. Ponomarenko—71111682
WAug 25 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi—1111113S. Ponomarenko—6890
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732LSep 4 · 18:25P. Plakushchyi3.50411116122Y. Kryvorotko1.28115311143WSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi2.25101050O. Gavryshko1.571212113WSep 4 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi2.3811811113A. Chepurnyi1.53811761LSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113LSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672LSep 3 · 16:55P. Plakushchyi3.75581111102M. Makienko1.25111184123LSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070WSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113LSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690
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