TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067614
Played Sep 3Finished
Pavel Plakushchyi
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5118111181141012
Mykhailo Makienko
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:29 and never touched — 82.7% is still 82.7%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Makienko to win
82.7%
82.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Mykhailo Makienko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 91 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Mykhailo Makienko at 82.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 2–5 Mykhailo Makienko Pavel Plakushchyi has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Makienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Makienko
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1637 vs Makienko 1764
Makienko
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 60% vs Makienko 100%
Makienko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 70% vs Makienko 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi -1 · Makienko +5
Makienko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Makienko) · live re-read · sealed at 83% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makienko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 3.75 / Makienko 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Makienko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067614
Plakushchyi3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 86 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back16% 24 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 88
Makienko1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 41 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePlakushchyi2wins
AwayMakienko5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderMakienko leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyi50%2 of 4
AwayMakienko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi4Makienko3n = 7Plakushchyi took 4 of 7
S2Plakushchyi0Makienko7n = 7Makienko took 7 of 7
S3Plakushchyi4Makienko3n = 7Plakushchyi took 4 of 7
S4Plakushchyi2Makienko3n = 5Makienko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiMakienkoP − MBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match32.737.6−4.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiMakienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 679 vs 59 / 9244.9%64.1%305 / 679 vs 59 / 92Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakienkoPlakushchyi 3.75/Makienko 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Makienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Makienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 26 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi—56100M. Makienko—1111123
LAug 23 · 23:25P. Plakushchyi—11711592M. Makienko—511711113
LAug 20 · 16:55P. Plakushchyi—4940M. Makienko—111183
LAug 20 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi—116561M. Makienko—81111113
WAug 18 · 23:25P. Plakushchyi—121111113M. Makienko—1013851
WJul 29 · 23:25P. Plakushchyi—111011113M. Makienko—712961
LJul 28 · 23:25P. Plakushchyi—851271M. Makienko—111110113
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732LSep 4 · 18:25P. Plakushchyi3.50411116122Y. Kryvorotko1.28115311143WSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi2.25101050O. Gavryshko1.571212113WSep 4 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi2.3811811113A. Chepurnyi1.53811761LSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113LSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672LSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070WSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781WSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372
M. Makienko10
LSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661LSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113LSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 22:55O. Gavryshko1.7325670M. Makienko2.002711113WSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172WSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192LSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870WSep 5 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.8081113972M. Makienko1.911181111113
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