TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067501
Played Sep 3Finished
Eduard Rubtsov
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171210117––––
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched — 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingEduard Rubtsov above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 58 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 69.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Rubtsov 36–56 Pavel Plakushchyi Eduard Rubtsov has won 36 of their 92 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Plakushchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-56 in 92
Plakushchyi
Wrong
gap of 20 in 92, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rubtsov 1394 vs Plakushchyi 1661
Plakushchyi
Wrong
both rated, 267 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rubtsov 0% vs Plakushchyi 60%
Plakushchyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rubtsov 30% vs Plakushchyi 70%
Plakushchyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rubtsov -5 · Plakushchyi +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Plakushchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRubtsov 2.75 / Plakushchyi 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13067501
Rubtsov2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 98 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 114
Plakushchyi1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 44 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it82% 31 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRubtsov2wins
AwayPlakushchyi8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRubtsov66.7%2 of 3
AwayPlakushchyi100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rubtsov3Plakushchyi7n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S2Rubtsov3Plakushchyi7n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S3Rubtsov5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Rubtsov3Plakushchyi5n = 8Plakushchyi took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRubtsovPlakushchyiR − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.536.7−2.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRubtsovPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 771 vs 305 / 67838.5%45%297 / 771 vs 305 / 678Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.235.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiRubtsov 2.75/Plakushchyi 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.9%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rubtsov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 15:55E. Rubtsov—11311113P. Plakushchyi—311821
LAug 19 · 23:55E. Rubtsov—971111102P. Plakushchyi—111169123
LAug 19 · 01:25E. Rubtsov—11116662P. Plakushchyi—981111113
LJul 29 · 21:25E. Rubtsov—711681P. Plakushchyi—11111113
LJul 29 · 03:55E. Rubtsov—10590P. Plakushchyi—1211113
LApr 22 · 23:25E. Rubtsov—871171P. Plakushchyi—11117113
LJan 25 · 03:25E. Rubtsov—771181P. Plakushchyi—11113113
LJan 22 · 23:55E. Rubtsov—1011791P. Plakushchyi—12411113
WJan 15 · 04:05E. Rubtsov—11511113P. Plakushchyi—311591
LJan 9 · 18:25E. Rubtsov—68100P. Plakushchyi—1111123
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov3.258680P. Plakushchyi1.331111113LSep 3 · 24:25E. Rubtsov3.251311281O. Mishchenko1.3315911113LSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732LSep 4 · 18:25P. Plakushchyi3.50411116122Y. Kryvorotko1.28115311143WSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi2.25101050O. Gavryshko1.571212113WSep 4 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi2.3811811113A. Chepurnyi1.53811761LSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113LSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672LSep 3 · 16:55P. Plakushchyi3.75581111102M. Makienko1.25111184123WSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781WSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov3.258680P. Plakushchyi1.331111113
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