TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067447
Played Sep 3Finished
Eduard Rubtsov
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117511117511116
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:59 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingEduard Rubtsov above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 85 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 75.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Rubtsov 45–103 Oleksandr Mishchenko Eduard Rubtsov has won 45 of their 148 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Mishchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-103 in 148
Mishchenko
Wrong
gap of 58 in 148, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rubtsov 1420 vs Mishchenko 1585
Mishchenko
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rubtsov 20% vs Mishchenko 60%
Mishchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rubtsov 40% vs Mishchenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rubtsov +1 · Mishchenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Mishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRubtsov 3.25 / Mishchenko 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Mishchenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067447
Rubtsov3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 98 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 114
Mishchenko1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 126 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it91% 86 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it84% 108 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRubtsov2wins
AwayMishchenko8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMishchenko leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRubtsov33.3%1 of 3
AwayMishchenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rubtsov3Mishchenko7n = 10Mishchenko took 7 of 10
S2Rubtsov2Mishchenko8n = 10Mishchenko took 8 of 10
S3Rubtsov6Mishchenko4n = 10Rubtsov took 6 of 10
S4Rubtsov3Mishchenko5n = 8Mishchenko took 5 of 8
S5Rubtsov2Mishchenko4n = 6Mishchenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRubtsovMishchenkoR − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.644.2−7.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRubtsovMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 772 vs 493 / 104838.6%47%298 / 772 vs 493 / 1048Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoRubtsov 3.25/Mishchenko 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rubtsov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 22:25E. Rubtsov—2740O. Mishchenko—1111113
LAug 18 · 23:55E. Rubtsov—791181O. Mishchenko—11113113
LAug 13 · 18:55E. Rubtsov—129111062O. Mishchenko—1011912113
LAug 13 · 24:25E. Rubtsov—11512462O. Mishchenko—7111011113
LAug 11 · 22:25E. Rubtsov—31111542O. Mishchenko—119711113
LAug 6 · 18:55E. Rubtsov—8780O. Mishchenko—1111113
WAug 5 · 23:55E. Rubtsov—9101114113O. Mishchenko—111241252
LAug 5 · 03:55E. Rubtsov—361151O. Mishchenko—11118113
WJul 30 · 14:25E. Rubtsov—118811143O. Mishchenko—911117122
LJul 29 · 22:55E. Rubtsov—41261292O. Mishchenko—11101110113
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov3.258680P. Plakushchyi1.331111113LSep 3 · 24:25E. Rubtsov3.251311281O. Mishchenko1.3315911113LSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 18:55A. Chepurnyi1.441111113O. Mishchenko2.639850LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Kryvorotko1.221111113O. Mishchenko4.005840WSep 3 · 24:25E. Rubtsov3.251311281O. Mishchenko1.3315911113
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