TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061291
Played Sep 3Finished
Eduard Rubtsov
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611811––––
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:23 and never touched — 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEduard Rubtsov above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 69.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Rubtsov 36–56 Pavel Plakushchyi Eduard Rubtsov has won 36 of their 92 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:23What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Plakushchyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-56 in 92
Plakushchyi
Correct
gap of 20 in 92, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rubtsov 1413 vs Plakushchyi 1640
Plakushchyi
Correct
both rated, 228 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rubtsov 60% vs Plakushchyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rubtsov 30% vs Plakushchyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rubtsov -2 · Plakushchyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Plakushchyi) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRubtsov 3.25 / Plakushchyi 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 75%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13061291
Rubtsov3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 97 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 111
Plakushchyi1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 41 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it83% 30 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRubtsov2wins
AwayPlakushchyi8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRubtsov66.7%2 of 3
AwayPlakushchyi100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rubtsov3Plakushchyi7n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S2Rubtsov3Plakushchyi7n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S3Rubtsov5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Rubtsov3Plakushchyi5n = 8Plakushchyi took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRubtsovPlakushchyiR − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.536.7−2.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRubtsovPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 769 vs 303 / 67638.6%44.8%297 / 769 vs 303 / 676Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.235.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiRubtsov 3.25/Plakushchyi 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.5%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 15:55E. Rubtsov—11311113P. Plakushchyi—311821
LAug 19 · 23:55E. Rubtsov—971111102P. Plakushchyi—111169123
LAug 19 · 01:25E. Rubtsov—11116662P. Plakushchyi—981111113
LJul 29 · 21:25E. Rubtsov—711681P. Plakushchyi—11111113
LJul 29 · 03:55E. Rubtsov—10590P. Plakushchyi—1211113
LApr 22 · 23:25E. Rubtsov—871171P. Plakushchyi—11117113
LJan 25 · 03:25E. Rubtsov—771181P. Plakushchyi—11113113
LJan 22 · 23:55E. Rubtsov—1011791P. Plakushchyi—12411113
WJan 15 · 04:05E. Rubtsov—11511113P. Plakushchyi—311591
LJan 9 · 18:25E. Rubtsov—68100P. Plakushchyi—1111123
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 24:25E. Rubtsov3.251311281O. Mishchenko1.3315911113LSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732LSep 4 · 18:25P. Plakushchyi3.50411116122Y. Kryvorotko1.28115311143WSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi2.25101050O. Gavryshko1.571212113WSep 4 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi2.3811811113A. Chepurnyi1.53811761LSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113LSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672LSep 3 · 16:55P. Plakushchyi3.75581111102M. Makienko1.25111184123LSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070WSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781
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