TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061312
Played Sep 3Finished
Eduard Rubtsov
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411811––––
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:23 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Kovalenko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEduard Rubtsov above · Viacheslav Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 60.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Rubtsov 25–36 Viacheslav Kovalenko Eduard Rubtsov has won 25 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:23What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-36 in 61
Kovalenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rubtsov 1398 vs Kovalenko 1579
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rubtsov 40% vs Kovalenko 80%
Kovalenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rubtsov 30% vs Kovalenko 80%
Kovalenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rubtsov -3 · Kovalenko -1
Rubtsov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRubtsov 2.20 / Kovalenko 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kovalenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13061312
Rubtsov2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 97 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 111
Kovalenko1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 68 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it75% 47 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRubtsov5wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRubtsovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKovalenko50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rubtsov2Kovalenko8n = 10Kovalenko took 8 of 10
S2Rubtsov2Kovalenko8n = 10Kovalenko took 8 of 10
S3Rubtsov8Kovalenko2n = 10Rubtsov took 8 of 10
S4Rubtsov5Kovalenko2n = 7Rubtsov took 5 of 7
S5Rubtsov3Kovalenko2n = 5Rubtsov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRubtsovKovalenkoR − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.940.6−2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRubtsovKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 770 vs 175 / 40138.6%43.6%297 / 770 vs 175 / 401Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoRubtsov 2.20/Kovalenko 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov—9480V. Kovalenko—1111113
WAug 26 · 19:55E. Rubtsov—111111113V. Kovalenko—139551
WAug 24 · 21:25E. Rubtsov—811111123V. Kovalenko—111198102
LAug 20 · 19:25E. Rubtsov—86111682V. Kovalenko—1111814113
WAug 20 · 24:55E. Rubtsov—1111123V. Kovalenko—26100
LAug 13 · 13:25E. Rubtsov—8460V. Kovalenko—1111113
WAug 12 · 22:55E. Rubtsov—571111113V. Kovalenko—11119672
LAug 12 · 04:25E. Rubtsov—18511872V. Kovalenko—1611511113
WAug 6 · 13:25E. Rubtsov—861111113V. Kovalenko—11118852
LAug 5 · 21:55E. Rubtsov—581421V. Kovalenko—111112113
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov3.258680P. Plakushchyi1.331111113LSep 3 · 24:25E. Rubtsov3.251311281O. Mishchenko1.3315911113LSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
V. Kovalenko10
LSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.9171171182O. Mishchenko1.80117113113WSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:55V. Kovalenko2.109111211113P. Plakushchyi1.6711514482WSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 28 · 03:25V. Kovalenko1.401111113V. Khamurda2.758780WAug 28 · 01:55V. Kovalenko1.83111169123R. Gnoevoy1.83491111102WAug 28 · 24:25V. Kovalenko1.53111511113S. Skachenko2.387131341WAug 27 · 22:55V. Kovalenko1.7311712113S. Abalmaz2.007111091WAug 27 · 21:25V. Kovalenko1.571211113O. Naida2.2510320LAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
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