TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13062153
Played Sep 3Finished
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711117711113811
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:42 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Kovalenko above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 54.3%
87 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Kovalenko 29–32 Oleksandr Mishchenko Viacheslav Kovalenko has won 29 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 02:42What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mishchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-32 in 61
Mishchenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1583 vs Mishchenko 1574
Kovalenko
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 100% vs Mishchenko 20%
Kovalenko
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 80% vs Mishchenko 40%
Kovalenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +5 · Mishchenko +1
Kovalenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.91 / Mishchenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mishchenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13062153
Kovalenko1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 64 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 57
Mishchenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 124 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it91% 86 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it84% 106 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko5wins
AwayMishchenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko100%3 of 3
AwayMishchenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko3Mishchenko7n = 10Mishchenko took 7 of 10
S2Kovalenko6Mishchenko4n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S3Kovalenko7Mishchenko3n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S4Kovalenko3Mishchenko4n = 7Mishchenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoMishchenkoK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.234.2+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 399 vs 491 / 104443.6%47%174 / 399 vs 491 / 1044Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoKovalenko 1.91/Mishchenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 16:25V. Kovalenko—111111113O. Mishchenko—613741
LAug 20 · 04:25V. Kovalenko—8111181O. Mishchenko—11913113
LAug 13 · 14:55V. Kovalenko—971151O. Mishchenko—11114113
WAug 13 · 04:25V. Kovalenko—81111113O. Mishchenko—114751
WAug 12 · 24:55V. Kovalenko—1111113O. Mishchenko—6930
LAug 6 · 14:55V. Kovalenko—81331162O. Mishchenko—1111115113
LAug 6 · 24:55V. Kovalenko—811100O. Mishchenko—1113123
WJul 30 · 18:25V. Kovalenko—1011117113O. Mishchenko—12471142
WJul 30 · 24:55V. Kovalenko—1111113O. Mishchenko—6990
LJul 23 · 13:25V. Kovalenko—661181O. Mishchenko—11116113
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113WSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:55V. Kovalenko2.109111211113P. Plakushchyi1.6711514482WSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 28 · 03:25V. Kovalenko1.401111113V. Khamurda2.758780WAug 28 · 01:55V. Kovalenko1.83111169123R. Gnoevoy1.83491111102WAug 28 · 24:25V. Kovalenko1.53111511113S. Skachenko2.387131341WAug 27 · 22:55V. Kovalenko1.7311712113S. Abalmaz2.007111091WAug 27 · 21:25V. Kovalenko1.571211113O. Naida2.2510320LAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 18:55A. Chepurnyi1.441111113O. Mishchenko2.639850LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Kryvorotko1.221111113O. Mishchenko4.005840WSep 4 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.5711511482O. Mishchenko2.25611511113
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