TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015196
Played Aug 26Finished
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311911511511––
Eduard Rubtsov
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Kovalenko to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingViacheslav Kovalenko above · Eduard Rubtsov below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 76 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 58.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Kovalenko 35–24 Eduard Rubtsov Eduard Rubtsov has won 24 of their 59 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-24 in 59
Kovalenko
Wrong
gap of 11 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1483 vs Rubtsov 1403
Kovalenko
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 60% vs Rubtsov 20%
Kovalenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 60% vs Rubtsov 30%
Kovalenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -1 · Rubtsov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rubtsov form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.61 / Rubtsov 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Kovalenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13015196
Kovalenko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 65 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it71% 42 of 59
Rubtsov2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 101 of 285
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko5wins
AwayRubtsov5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko57.1%4 of 7
AwayRubtsov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko7Rubtsov3n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S2Kovalenko8Rubtsov2n = 10Kovalenko took 8 of 10
S3Kovalenko3Rubtsov7n = 10Rubtsov took 7 of 10
S4Kovalenko3Rubtsov4n = 7Rubtsov took 4 of 7
S5Kovalenko2Rubtsov4n = 6Rubtsov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoRubtsovK − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.638.3+3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoRubtsovBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 390 vs 297 / 77042.6%38.6%166 / 390 vs 297 / 770Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.61/Rubtsov 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rubtsov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 21:25V. Kovalenko—111198102E. Rubtsov—811111123
WAug 20 · 19:25V. Kovalenko—1111814113E. Rubtsov—86111682
LAug 20 · 24:55V. Kovalenko—26100E. Rubtsov—1111123
WAug 13 · 13:25V. Kovalenko—1111113E. Rubtsov—8460
LAug 12 · 22:55V. Kovalenko—11119672E. Rubtsov—571111113
WAug 12 · 04:25V. Kovalenko—1611511113E. Rubtsov—18511872
LAug 6 · 13:25V. Kovalenko—11118852E. Rubtsov—861111113
WAug 5 · 21:55V. Kovalenko—111112113E. Rubtsov—581421
LJul 30 · 15:55V. Kovalenko—68111342E. Rubtsov—1111711113
WJul 30 · 01:55V. Kovalenko—1111113E. Rubtsov—9630
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.9171171182O. Mishchenko1.80117113113WSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:55V. Kovalenko2.109111211113P. Plakushchyi1.6711514482WSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 28 · 03:25V. Kovalenko1.401111113V. Khamurda2.758780WAug 28 · 01:55V. Kovalenko1.83111169123R. Gnoevoy1.83491111102WAug 28 · 24:25V. Kovalenko1.53111511113S. Skachenko2.387131341WAug 27 · 22:55V. Kovalenko1.7311712113S. Abalmaz2.007111091WAug 27 · 21:25V. Kovalenko1.571211113O. Naida2.2510320
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov3.258680P. Plakushchyi1.331111113LSep 3 · 24:25E. Rubtsov3.251311281O. Mishchenko1.3315911113LSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162
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