TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061107
Played Sep 3Finished
Eduard Rubtsov
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1315119211811––
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:33 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEduard Rubtsov above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 80 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 75.3%
80 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Rubtsov 45–103 Oleksandr Mishchenko Eduard Rubtsov has won 45 of their 148 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:33What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Mishchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-103 in 148
Mishchenko
Correct
gap of 58 in 148, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rubtsov 1428 vs Mishchenko 1566
Mishchenko
Correct
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rubtsov 60% vs Mishchenko 0%
Rubtsov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rubtsov 30% vs Mishchenko 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rubtsov -1 · Mishchenko -5
Mishchenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Mishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRubtsov 3.25 / Mishchenko 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Mishchenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13061107
Rubtsov3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 97 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 111
Mishchenko1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 124 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it91% 86 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it84% 106 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRubtsov2wins
AwayMishchenko8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMishchenko leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRubtsov33.3%1 of 3
AwayMishchenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rubtsov3Mishchenko7n = 10Mishchenko took 7 of 10
S2Rubtsov2Mishchenko8n = 10Mishchenko took 8 of 10
S3Rubtsov6Mishchenko4n = 10Rubtsov took 6 of 10
S4Rubtsov3Mishchenko5n = 8Mishchenko took 5 of 8
S5Rubtsov2Mishchenko4n = 6Mishchenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRubtsovMishchenkoR − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.644.2−7.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRubtsovMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 767 vs 490 / 104338.7%47%297 / 767 vs 490 / 1043Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoRubtsov 3.25/Mishchenko 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 22:25E. Rubtsov—2740O. Mishchenko—1111113
LAug 18 · 23:55E. Rubtsov—791181O. Mishchenko—11113113
LAug 13 · 18:55E. Rubtsov—129111062O. Mishchenko—1011912113
LAug 13 · 24:25E. Rubtsov—11512462O. Mishchenko—7111011113
LAug 11 · 22:25E. Rubtsov—31111542O. Mishchenko—119711113
LAug 6 · 18:55E. Rubtsov—8780O. Mishchenko—1111113
WAug 5 · 23:55E. Rubtsov—9101114113O. Mishchenko—111241252
LAug 5 · 03:55E. Rubtsov—361151O. Mishchenko—11118113
WJul 30 · 14:25E. Rubtsov—118811143O. Mishchenko—911117122
LJul 29 · 22:55E. Rubtsov—41261292O. Mishchenko—11101110113
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov3.258680P. Plakushchyi1.331111113LSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 18:55A. Chepurnyi1.441111113O. Mishchenko2.639850LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Kryvorotko1.221111113O. Mishchenko4.005840LSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162
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