TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073625
Played Sep 4Finished
Artem Chepurnyi
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118115––––
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtem Chepurnyi above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 64.4%
55 points played in total.
H2H Artem Chepurnyi 111–86 Oleksandr Mishchenko Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 86 of their 197 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chepurnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
111-86 in 197
Chepurnyi
Correct
gap of 25 in 197, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chepurnyi 1729 vs Mishchenko 1580
Chepurnyi
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chepurnyi 20% vs Mishchenko 40%
Mishchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chepurnyi 30% vs Mishchenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chepurnyi +1 · Mishchenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Chepurnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chepurnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChepurnyi 1.44 / Mishchenko 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13073625
Chepurnyi1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite66% won 163 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it93% 82 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it82% 128 of 156
Mishchenko2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 89 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back12% 16 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChepurnyi7wins
AwayMishchenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChepurnyi100%5 of 5
AwayMishchenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chepurnyi5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Chepurnyi4Mishchenko6n = 10Mishchenko took 6 of 10
S3Chepurnyi6Mishchenko4n = 10Chepurnyi took 6 of 10
S4Chepurnyi5Mishchenko2n = 7Chepurnyi took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChepurnyiMishchenkoC − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.135.2+1.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChepurnyiMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime561 / 947 vs 495 / 105459.2%47%561 / 947 vs 495 / 1054Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiChepurnyi 1.44/Mishchenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.1%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi—11913113O. Mishchenko—5111171
LAug 23 · 01:25A. Chepurnyi—7750O. Mishchenko—1111113
WAug 17 · 01:25A. Chepurnyi—61111113O. Mishchenko—119591
LAug 9 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi—1011991O. Mishchenko—12811113
LAug 9 · 01:25A. Chepurnyi—4990O. Mishchenko—1111113
WAug 2 · 23:55A. Chepurnyi—1311113O. Mishchenko—11870
WJul 22 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi—112119113O. Mishchenko—91161142
WJul 22 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi—12119113O. Mishchenko—1071191
WJul 20 · 01:25A. Chepurnyi—11711113O. Mishchenko—611891
WJul 17 · 13:55A. Chepurnyi—931211113O. Mishchenko—111110152
A. Chepurnyi10
WSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661WSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113WSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113LSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172LSep 6 · 01:55Y. Kryvorotko1.611311113A. Chepurnyi2.2011820WSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko1.5011511113A. Chepurnyi2.50511621LSep 5 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi1.8391170O. Gavryshko1.831113113
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Kryvorotko1.221111113O. Mishchenko4.005840WSep 4 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.5711511482O. Mishchenko2.25611511113WSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113
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