TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084534
Played Sep 7Finished
Artem Chepurnyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511117116116––
Mykhailo Makienko
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Makienko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingArtem Chepurnyi above · Mykhailo Makienko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Mykhailo Makienko at 60.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Artem Chepurnyi 2–4 Mykhailo Makienko Artem Chepurnyi has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Makienko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Makienko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chepurnyi 1771 vs Makienko 1755
Chepurnyi
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chepurnyi 80% vs Makienko 40%
Chepurnyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chepurnyi 60% vs Makienko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chepurnyi +2 · Makienko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Makienko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makienko form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChepurnyi 2.20 / Makienko 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Makienko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084534
Chepurnyi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog38% won 43 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Makienko1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 47 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChepurnyi2wins
AwayMakienko4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderMakienko leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChepurnyin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMakienko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chepurnyi1Makienko5n = 6Makienko took 5 of 6
S2Chepurnyi2Makienko4n = 6Makienko took 4 of 6
S3Chepurnyi5Makienko1n = 6Chepurnyi took 5 of 6
S4Chepurnyi3Makienko3n = 6split evenly
S5Chepurnyi1Makienko2n = 3Makienko took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricChepurnyiMakienkoC − MBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match41.544.2−2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChepurnyiMakienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime563 / 948 vs 66 / 10459.4%63.5%563 / 948 vs 66 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakienkoChepurnyi 2.20/Makienko 1.61
Miss
What we said
58.9%
Makienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi—813117113M. Makienko—111181172
LAug 30 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi—89111192M. Makienko—111169113
WAug 28 · 13:55A. Chepurnyi—61113113M. Makienko—1181121
LAug 22 · 23:55A. Chepurnyi—43111182M. Makienko—111189113
LJul 23 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi—146781M. Makienko—121111113
LJul 21 · 23:55A. Chepurnyi—1271181M. Makienko—14116113
A. Chepurnyi10
WSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113WSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113LSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172LSep 6 · 01:55Y. Kryvorotko1.611311113A. Chepurnyi2.2011820WSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko1.5011511113A. Chepurnyi2.50511621LSep 5 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi1.8391170O. Gavryshko1.831113113WSep 4 · 20:25Y. Kryvorotko1.61118251A. Chepurnyi2.2061111113
M. Makienko10
LSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113LSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 22:55O. Gavryshko1.7325670M. Makienko2.002711113WSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172WSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192LSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870WSep 5 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.8081113972M. Makienko1.911181111113WSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113
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