TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079190
Played Sep 6Finished
Ivan Demchenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012711711––––
Mykhailo Makienko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Makienko to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Demchenko above · Mykhailo Makienko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 58 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Mykhailo Makienko at 59.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Demchenko 2–3 Mykhailo Makienko Ivan Demchenko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:29What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Makienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Demchenko 1659 vs Makienko 1759
Makienko
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Demchenko 0% vs Makienko 60%
Makienko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Demchenko 50% vs Makienko 80%
Makienko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Demchenko -5 · Makienko -2
Demchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Makienko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Demchenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDemchenko 2.10 / Makienko 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Makienko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079190
Demchenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 18 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back11% 6 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Makienko1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 46 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDemchenko2wins
AwayMakienko3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMakienko leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDemchenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayMakienkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Demchenko3Makienko2n = 5Demchenko took 3 of 5
S2Demchenko3Makienko2n = 5Demchenko took 3 of 5
S3Demchenko4Makienko1n = 5Demchenko took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricDemchenkoMakienkoD − MBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match33.435.6−2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDemchenkoMakienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime62 / 139 vs 63 / 9844.6%64.3%62 / 139 vs 63 / 98Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakienkoDemchenko 2.10/Makienko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Makienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Makienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 19 · 21:25I. Demchenko—81111292M. Makienko—119611113
LAug 19 · 04:25I. Demchenko—3340M. Makienko—1111113
LAug 13 · 03:55I. Demchenko—126121182M. Makienko—10111013113
WAug 5 · 21:25I. Demchenko—1112113M. Makienko—61080
WAug 5 · 04:25I. Demchenko—1111113M. Makienko—4950
I. Demchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101WSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4011611113I. Demchenko2.75911781LSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930LAug 21 · 19:03Y. Kryvorotko1.44111289113I. Demchenko2.63810111142
M. Makienko10
LSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661LSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113LSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 22:55O. Gavryshko1.7325670M. Makienko2.002711113WSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172LSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192LSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870WSep 5 · 21:25Y. Kryvorotko1.8081113972M. Makienko1.911181111113WSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113
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