TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079199
Played Sep 6Finished
Artem Chepurnyi
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
101251111914121210
Ivan Demchenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtem Chepurnyi above · Ivan Demchenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 106 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 66.1%
106 points played in total.
H2H Artem Chepurnyi 8–1 Ivan Demchenko Ivan Demchenko has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:29What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chepurnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-1 in 9
Chepurnyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chepurnyi 1733 vs Demchenko 1668
Chepurnyi
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chepurnyi 60% vs Demchenko 20%
Chepurnyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chepurnyi 30% vs Demchenko 60%
Demchenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chepurnyi -2 · Demchenko -4
Demchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Chepurnyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Demchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChepurnyi 1.44 / Demchenko 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13079199
Chepurnyi1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite65% won 164 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it93% 83 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it82% 129 of 157
Demchenko2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 18 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back11% 6 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeChepurnyi8wins
AwayDemchenko1wins
1 of 9 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 8–1, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChepurnyi85.7%6 of 7
AwayDemchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chepurnyi7Demchenko2n = 9Chepurnyi took 7 of 9
S2Chepurnyi8Demchenko1n = 9Chepurnyi took 8 of 9
S3Chepurnyi6Demchenko3n = 9Chepurnyi took 6 of 9
S4Chepurnyi5Demchenko0n = 5Chepurnyi took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricChepurnyiDemchenkoC − DBasisWins81+7in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match38.328.7+9.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChepurnyiDemchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime558 / 941 vs 62 / 13859.3%44.9%558 / 941 vs 62 / 138Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiChepurnyi 1.44/Demchenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 17 · 02:55A. Chepurnyi—51111113I. Demchenko—113931
WAug 16 · 24:25A. Chepurnyi—1212113I. Demchenko—101060
WAug 7 · 18:25A. Chepurnyi—1111113I. Demchenko—7740
WAug 2 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi—11119113I. Demchenko—871151
WAug 2 · 02:55A. Chepurnyi—81111113I. Demchenko—119771
WJun 29 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi—11148113I. Demchenko—6121141
WJun 16 · 19:55A. Chepurnyi—1111113I. Demchenko—8670
WMay 30 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi—1111113I. Demchenko—9570
LMay 29 · 17:25A. Chepurnyi—14761182I. Demchenko—1211113113
A. Chepurnyi10
WSep 7 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi2.2051111113M. Makienko1.61117661WSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113WSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113LSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi2.00813117113M. Makienko1.73111181172LSep 6 · 01:55Y. Kryvorotko1.611311113A. Chepurnyi2.2011820LSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko1.5011511113A. Chepurnyi2.50511621LSep 5 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi1.8391170O. Gavryshko1.831113113WSep 4 · 20:25Y. Kryvorotko1.61118251A. Chepurnyi2.2061111113
I. Demchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101WSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 5 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4011611113I. Demchenko2.75911781LSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930LAug 21 · 19:03Y. Kryvorotko1.44111289113I. Demchenko2.63810111142
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