TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084398
Played Sep 7Finished
Ivan Demchenko
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119611119112––
Oleksandr Dukhovenko
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Dukhovenko to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Demchenko above · Oleksandr Dukhovenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 70 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Oleksandr Dukhovenko at 79.4%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Demchenko 2–15 Oleksandr Dukhovenko Ivan Demchenko has won 2 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Dukhovenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-15 in 17
Dukhovenko
Wrong
gap of 13 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Demchenko 1697 vs Dukhovenko 1905
Dukhovenko
Wrong
both rated, 208 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Demchenko 60% vs Dukhovenko 100%
Dukhovenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Demchenko 30% vs Dukhovenko 100%
Dukhovenko
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Demchenko -1 · Dukhovenko +5
Dukhovenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Dukhovenko) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dukhovenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDemchenko 3.75 / Dukhovenko 1.25
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Dukhovenko)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13084398
Demchenko3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog23% won 18 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back10% 6 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Dukhovenko1.25
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite74% won 205 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it98% 127 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it91% 159 of 175
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDemchenko2wins
AwayDukhovenko8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDukhovenko leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDemchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDukhovenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Demchenko2Dukhovenko8n = 10Dukhovenko took 8 of 10
S2Demchenko3Dukhovenko7n = 10Dukhovenko took 7 of 10
S3Demchenko5Dukhovenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Demchenko1Dukhovenko4n = 5Dukhovenko took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricDemchenkoDukhovenkoDemchenko − DukhovenkoBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.437.0−6.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDemchenkoDukhovenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 145 vs 535 / 85244.8%62.8%65 / 145 vs 535 / 852Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DukhovenkoDemchenko 3.75/Dukhovenko 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.3%
Dukhovenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Demchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 21:55I. Demchenko—4930O. Dukhovenko—1111113
WAug 21 · 14:25I. Demchenko—1111123O. Dukhovenko—85100
LAug 17 · 04:25I. Demchenko—5870O. Dukhovenko—1111113
LAug 16 · 01:55I. Demchenko—111210622O. Dukhovenko—8101211113
WAug 7 · 16:25I. Demchenko—81111113O. Dukhovenko—118981
LAug 2 · 23:25I. Demchenko—691351O. Dukhovenko—111111113
LAug 1 · 22:55I. Demchenko—581181O. Dukhovenko—11112113
LJul 13 · 04:25I. Demchenko—8690O. Dukhovenko—1111113
LJul 12 · 01:25I. Demchenko—8990O. Dukhovenko—1111113
LJul 6 · 04:25I. Demchenko—691761O. Dukhovenko—111115113
I. Demchenko10
LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101WSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4011611113I. Demchenko2.75911781LSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930LAug 21 · 19:03Y. Kryvorotko1.44111289113I. Demchenko2.63810111142
O. Dukhovenko10
WSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113WSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113WSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 21:25O. Gavryshko2.50981191O. Dukhovenko1.5011118113WSep 6 · 03:25Y. Kryvorotko1.80119981O. Dukhovenko1.9181111113WSep 6 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko1.50111169113O. Gavryshko2.5059111182WSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192WSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko1.5011511113A. Chepurnyi2.50511621WSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930WSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732
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