TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079103
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleksandr Dukhovenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115119611911118
Oleg Gavryshko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Dukhovenko to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Dukhovenko above · Oleg Gavryshko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Dukhovenko at 60.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Dukhovenko 85–56 Oleg Gavryshko Oleg Gavryshko has won 56 of their 141 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dukhovenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
85-56 in 141
Dukhovenko
Correct
gap of 29 in 141, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dukhovenko 1856 vs Gavryshko 1865
Gavryshko
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dukhovenko 100% vs Gavryshko 80%
Dukhovenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dukhovenko 70% vs Gavryshko 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dukhovenko +5 · Gavryshko +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Dukhovenko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gavryshko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDukhovenko 1.50 / Gavryshko 2.50
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Dukhovenko)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13079103
Dukhovenko1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 201 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it98% 124 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it91% 155 of 171
Gavryshko2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 66 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDukhovenko4wins
AwayGavryshko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGavryshko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDukhovenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayGavryshko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dukhovenko3Gavryshko7n = 10Gavryshko took 7 of 10
S2Dukhovenko6Gavryshko4n = 10Dukhovenko took 6 of 10
S3Dukhovenko4Gavryshko6n = 10Gavryshko took 6 of 10
S4Dukhovenko5Gavryshko1n = 6Dukhovenko took 5 of 6
S5Dukhovenko1Gavryshko3n = 4Gavryshko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDukhovenkoGavryshkoD − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.439.7−1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDukhovenkoGavryshkoBasisWin rate · lifetime531 / 851 vs 332 / 62162.4%53.5%531 / 851 vs 332 / 621Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DukhovenkoDukhovenko 1.50/Gavryshko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Dukhovenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dukhovenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 17:55O. Dukhovenko—31112113O. Gavryshko—1141081
WAug 30 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko—1411113O. Gavryshko—12950
WAug 28 · 17:55O. Dukhovenko—1111113O. Gavryshko—9790
LAug 17 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko—94100O. Gavryshko—1111123
LAug 16 · 03:55O. Dukhovenko—1011101142O. Gavryshko—129123113
LAug 14 · 17:55O. Dukhovenko—1011811102O. Gavryshko—128119123
LAug 10 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko—1312881O. Gavryshko—151011113
WAug 8 · 22:55O. Dukhovenko—5111211113O. Gavryshko—111310862
LAug 7 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko—117611112O. Gavryshko—811117133
LAug 2 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko—71140O. Gavryshko—1113113
O. Dukhovenko10
LSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921WSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113WSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113WSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 21:25O. Gavryshko2.50981191O. Dukhovenko1.5011118113WSep 6 · 03:25Y. Kryvorotko1.80119981O. Dukhovenko1.9181111113WSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192WSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko1.5011511113A. Chepurnyi2.50511621WSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930WSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732
O. Gavryshko10
LSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123WSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101LSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113LSep 6 · 22:55O. Gavryshko1.7325670M. Makienko2.002711113LSep 6 · 21:25O. Gavryshko2.50981191O. Dukhovenko1.5011118113LSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133WSep 6 · 24:25Y. Kryvorotko1.6111561272O. Gavryshko2.205111110113WSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870WSep 5 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi1.8391170O. Gavryshko1.831113113WSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191
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