TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073859
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Dukhovenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116511115411811
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:38 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Dukhovenko to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Dukhovenko above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 83 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Dukhovenko at 59.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Dukhovenko 85–81 Oleksandr Mishchenko Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 81 of their 166 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dukhovenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
85-81 in 166
Dukhovenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 166, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dukhovenko 1797 vs Mishchenko 1580
Dukhovenko
Wrong
both rated, 216 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dukhovenko 60% vs Mishchenko 20%
Dukhovenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dukhovenko 70% vs Mishchenko 40%
Dukhovenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dukhovenko -1 · Mishchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Dukhovenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDukhovenko 1.57 / Mishchenko 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Dukhovenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13073859
Dukhovenko1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 198 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it98% 124 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it91% 153 of 168
Mishchenko2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 89 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back12% 16 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDukhovenko4wins
AwayMishchenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMishchenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDukhovenko60%3 of 5
AwayMishchenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dukhovenko5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Dukhovenko7Mishchenko3n = 10Dukhovenko took 7 of 10
S3Dukhovenko5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Dukhovenko2Mishchenko5n = 7Mishchenko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDukhovenkoMishchenkoD − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.734.7+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDukhovenkoMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime528 / 847 vs 494 / 105162.3%47%528 / 847 vs 494 / 1051Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DukhovenkoDukhovenko 1.57/Mishchenko 2.25
Miss
What we said
62.1%
Dukhovenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko—8890O. Mishchenko—1111113
WAug 10 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko—1111113O. Mishchenko—8770
LAug 8 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko—5111191O. Mishchenko—11813113
WAug 3 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko—61111113O. Mishchenko—112661
WJul 20 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko—1111113O. Mishchenko—4880
LJul 12 · 22:25O. Dukhovenko—11119482O. Mishchenko—391111113
LJun 27 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko—114118142O. Mishchenko—611611163
WJun 14 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko—11119113O. Mishchenko—551131
LJun 7 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko—9111171O. Mishchenko—11139113
LJun 5 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko—7119131O. Mishchenko—11411153
O. Dukhovenko10
LSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921WSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113WSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113WSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 21:25O. Gavryshko2.50981191O. Dukhovenko1.5011118113WSep 6 · 03:25Y. Kryvorotko1.80119981O. Dukhovenko1.9181111113WSep 6 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko1.50111169113O. Gavryshko2.5059111182WSep 6 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111267113M. Makienko2.10810111192WSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko1.5011511113A. Chepurnyi2.50511621WSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 18:55A. Chepurnyi1.441111113O. Mishchenko2.639850LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Kryvorotko1.221111113O. Mishchenko4.005840WSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113
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