TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061188
Played Sep 2Finished
Eduard Rubtsov
Home
11.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911211911––––
Serhii Ponomarenko
Away
1.02
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:03 and never touched — 92.9% is still 92.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
92.9%
92.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEduard Rubtsov above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 53 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 92.9%
53 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:03What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.02 (92%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Rubtsov 1430 vs Ponomarenko 1917
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 488 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rubtsov 60% vs Ponomarenko 80%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rubtsov 30% vs Ponomarenko 80%
Ponomarenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rubtsov +3 · Ponomarenko -1
Rubtsov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 93% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (80%) is below what odds imply (98%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRubtsov 11.00 / Ponomarenko 1.02
Signal prob.7% / 93%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+1.4pp
Setka Cup · #13061188
Rubtsov11.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 97 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 111
Ponomarenko1.02
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite88% won 313 of 357
Up 2–0, closes it100% 210 of 211
Up 1–0, closes it95% 261 of 275
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricRubtsovPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 766 vs 782 / 86738.8%90.2%297 / 766 vs 782 / 867Avg sets wonper match1.72.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoRubtsov 11.00/Ponomarenko 1.02
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.9%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ponomarenko won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov3.258680P. Plakushchyi1.331111113LSep 3 · 24:25E. Rubtsov3.251311281O. Mishchenko1.3315911113WSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113LSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690
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