TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061843
Played Sep 2Finished
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Home
6.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11812108111210––
Serhii Ponomarenko
Away
1.11
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:33 and never touched — 87.2% is still 87.2%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
87.2%
87.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingViacheslav Kovalenko above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 82 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 87.2%
82 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:33What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1539 vs Ponomarenko 1945
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 406 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 100% vs Ponomarenko 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 70% vs Ponomarenko 90%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +5 · Ponomarenko +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (17%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 6.00 / Ponomarenko 1.11
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13061843
Kovalenko6.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 64 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 57
Ponomarenko1.11
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite88% won 313 of 357
Up 2–0, closes it100% 210 of 211
Up 1–0, closes it95% 261 of 275
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 396 vs 782 / 86743.2%90.2%171 / 396 vs 782 / 867Avg sets wonper match1.92.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoKovalenko 6.00/Ponomarenko 1.11
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
87.2%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalenko won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.9171171182O. Mishchenko1.80117113113WSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:55V. Kovalenko2.109111211113P. Plakushchyi1.6711514482WAug 28 · 03:25V. Kovalenko1.401111113V. Khamurda2.758780WAug 28 · 01:55V. Kovalenko1.83111169123R. Gnoevoy1.83491111102WAug 28 · 24:25V. Kovalenko1.53111511113S. Skachenko2.387131341WAug 27 · 22:55V. Kovalenko1.7311712113S. Abalmaz2.007111091WAug 27 · 21:25V. Kovalenko1.571211113O. Naida2.2510320LAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113WSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690
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