TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022711
Played Aug 28Finished
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11715131113114––
Serhii Skachenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:04 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Kovalenko to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Kovalenko above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 85 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 56.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Kovalenko 21–13 Serhii Skachenko Serhii Skachenko has won 13 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-13 in 34
Kovalenko
Correct
gap of 8 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1500 vs Skachenko 1546
Skachenko
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 60% vs Skachenko 40%
Kovalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 60% vs Skachenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +2 · Skachenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kovalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.53 / Skachenko 2.38
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kovalenko)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13022711
Kovalenko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 65 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it70% 42 of 60
Skachenko2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 72 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko6wins
AwaySkachenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko100%4 of 4
AwaySkachenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko4Skachenko6n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S2Kovalenko7Skachenko3n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S3Kovalenko6Skachenko4n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Kovalenko3Skachenko4n = 7Skachenko took 4 of 7
S5Kovalenko2Skachenko1n = 3Kovalenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoSkachenkoK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.934.4+4.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoSkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 393 vs 109 / 27642.8%39.5%168 / 393 vs 109 / 276Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.53/Skachenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.4%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 9 · 18:25V. Kovalenko—1111113S. Skachenko—8930
LJul 9 · 02:55V. Kovalenko—49100S. Skachenko—1111123
WJul 2 · 17:25V. Kovalenko—12137133S. Skachenko—101111111
LJun 19 · 01:25V. Kovalenko—551181S. Skachenko—11114113
WJun 11 · 23:55V. Kovalenko—811811113S. Skachenko—11411912
WJun 10 · 22:55V. Kovalenko—1111113S. Skachenko—6850
LJun 5 · 03:25V. Kovalenko—811891S. Skachenko—11511113
LJun 3 · 21:55V. Kovalenko—1111111062S. Skachenko—139512113
WMay 21 · 17:55V. Kovalenko—101111113S. Skachenko—125671
WMay 20 · 23:25V. Kovalenko—117119113S. Skachenko—51161142
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.9171171182O. Mishchenko1.80117113113WSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:55V. Kovalenko2.109111211113P. Plakushchyi1.6711514482WSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 28 · 03:25V. Kovalenko1.401111113V. Khamurda2.758780WAug 28 · 01:55V. Kovalenko1.83111169123R. Gnoevoy1.83491111102WAug 27 · 22:55V. Kovalenko1.7311712113S. Abalmaz2.007111091WAug 27 · 21:25V. Kovalenko1.571211113O. Naida2.2510320LAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
S. Skachenko10
LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470LSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113LAug 28 · 18:35S. Skachenko1.839111121V. Khamurda1.8311138113WAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko1.831211143S. Abalmaz1.83106120LAug 28 · 15:35S. Skachenko1.6711591672O. Naida2.104111114113WAug 28 · 14:05S. Skachenko1.91117811113R. Gnoevoy1.8051111982WAug 28 · 12:35S. Skachenko1.8011911153T. Ponomarenko1.913115131
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