TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031348
Played Aug 28Finished
Serhii Skachenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115711811119118
Roman Gnoevoy
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:26 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Skachenko above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 55.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Skachenko 5–5 Roman Gnoevoy Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:26What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gnoevoy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skachenko 1523 vs Gnoevoy 1518
Skachenko
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skachenko 20% vs Gnoevoy 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skachenko 40% vs Gnoevoy 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skachenko +1 · Gnoevoy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkachenko 1.91 / Gnoevoy 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skachenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13031348
Skachenko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 73 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 88
Gnoevoy1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 85 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it75% 60 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkachenko5wins
AwayGnoevoy5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkachenko80%4 of 5
AwayGnoevoy80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skachenko5Gnoevoy5n = 10split evenly
S2Skachenko3Gnoevoy7n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S3Skachenko4Gnoevoy6n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S4Skachenko4Gnoevoy3n = 7Skachenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkachenkoGnoevoyS − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.338.5−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkachenkoGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 280 vs 409 / 81539.3%50.2%110 / 280 vs 409 / 815Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoSkachenko 1.91/Gnoevoy 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 22:25S. Skachenko—11126113R. Gnoevoy—4101161
LAug 11 · 14:55S. Skachenko—117971R. Gnoevoy—71111113
WAug 10 · 23:25S. Skachenko—111117163R. Gnoevoy—71315141
WAug 4 · 22:05S. Skachenko—1111113R. Gnoevoy—7990
LAug 4 · 04:25S. Skachenko—4390R. Gnoevoy—1111113
WJul 31 · 02:55S. Skachenko—118912113R. Gnoevoy—811111062
LJul 21 · 22:35S. Skachenko—751171R. Gnoevoy—11118113
WJul 20 · 23:55S. Skachenko—1011411113R. Gnoevoy—12711952
LJun 13 · 24:25S. Skachenko—7511101R. Gnoevoy—11119123
LMar 17 · 19:25S. Skachenko—8880R. Gnoevoy—1111113
S. Skachenko10
LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470LSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113LAug 28 · 18:35S. Skachenko1.839111121V. Khamurda1.8311138113WAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko1.831211143S. Abalmaz1.83106120LAug 28 · 15:35S. Skachenko1.6711591672O. Naida2.104111114113WAug 28 · 12:35S. Skachenko1.8011911153T. Ponomarenko1.913115131LAug 28 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.8311711892S. Abalmaz1.83611511113
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182LSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113WSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680WSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113WSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113WSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161LSep 1 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.4061217113R. Gnoevoy2.7511101591LSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113
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