TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055687
Played Sep 1Finished
Roman Gnoevoy
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611711––––
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:46 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 51 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 54.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 45–50 Spartak Abalmaz Roman Gnoevoy has won 45 of their 95 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-50 in 95
Abalmaz
Correct
gap of 5 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1544 vs Abalmaz 1617
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 80% vs Abalmaz 60%
Gnoevoy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 60% vs Abalmaz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy +4 · Abalmaz +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 1.91 / Abalmaz 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Abalmaz)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13055687
Gnoevoy1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 113 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back26% 30 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 69
Abalmaz1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 174 of 296
Up 2–0, closes it94% 78 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it76% 128 of 168
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGnoevoy5wins
AwayAbalmaz5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoy75%3 of 4
AwayAbalmaz66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy4Abalmaz6n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S2Gnoevoy6Abalmaz4n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S3Gnoevoy6Abalmaz4n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S4Gnoevoy5Abalmaz2n = 7Gnoevoy took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGnoevoyAbalmazG − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.636.5+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoyAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 820 vs 421 / 82750.4%50.9%413 / 820 vs 421 / 827Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazGnoevoy 1.91/Abalmaz 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 16:05R. Gnoevoy—6580S. Abalmaz—1111113
LAug 28 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy—107111142S. Abalmaz—121186113
WAug 14 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy—11115113S. Abalmaz—891131
WAug 11 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy—61112113S. Abalmaz—1181041
WAug 11 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy—61121113S. Abalmaz—1151951
WAug 7 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy—1111113S. Abalmaz—9890
LAug 5 · 02:05R. Gnoevoy—511881S. Abalmaz—11611113
LAug 4 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy—11951282S. Abalmaz—7111110113
LJul 30 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy—891131S. Abalmaz—11115113
WJul 29 · 01:05R. Gnoevoy—1411113S. Abalmaz—12960
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182LSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113WSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680WSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113WSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113WSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161LSep 1 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.4061217113R. Gnoevoy2.7511101591WSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113WSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.2011811123D. Derevynskyi1.617118101
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