TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067665
Played Sep 4Finished
Spartak Abalmaz
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711611––––
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSpartak Abalmaz above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 54 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Spartak Abalmaz 27–39 Dmytro Derevynskyi Spartak Abalmaz has won 27 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:38What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-39 in 66
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 12 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Abalmaz 1609 vs Derevynskyi 1568
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Abalmaz 60% vs Derevynskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Abalmaz 70% vs Derevynskyi 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Abalmaz +1 · Derevynskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAbalmaz 2.10 / Derevynskyi 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13067665
Abalmaz2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 70 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back32% 22 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Derevynskyi1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 195 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it90% 88 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it72% 136 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAbalmaz4wins
AwayDerevynskyi6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAbalmaz75%3 of 4
AwayDerevynskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Abalmaz4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Abalmaz4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Abalmaz4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S4Abalmaz2Derevynskyi6n = 8Derevynskyi took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAbalmazDerevynskyiA − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.2−1.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAbalmazDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime425 / 833 vs 473 / 86251%54.9%425 / 833 vs 473 / 862Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiAbalmaz 2.10/Derevynskyi 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 03:55S. Abalmaz—128130D. Derevynskyi—1411153
LJul 29 · 02:05S. Abalmaz—914661D. Derevynskyi—111211113
WJul 26 · 21:55S. Abalmaz—911117113D. Derevynskyi—11861152
LJul 15 · 14:55S. Abalmaz—11811101D. Derevynskyi—13116123
WJul 13 · 23:25S. Abalmaz—111199113D. Derevynskyi—98111162
LJul 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz—77130D. Derevynskyi—1111153
LJul 8 · 03:55S. Abalmaz—1011691D. Derevynskyi—12511113
WJul 7 · 04:25S. Abalmaz—11911123D. Derevynskyi—9116101
LJul 1 · 14:55S. Abalmaz—1121061D. Derevynskyi—71112113
WJul 1 · 01:35S. Abalmaz—11711113D. Derevynskyi—711991
S. Abalmaz10
WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113WSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113WSep 1 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.2011811123D. Derevynskyi1.617118101
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113LSep 1 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.2011811123D. Derevynskyi1.617118101
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