TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073955
Played Sep 4Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711611116117117
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:02 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 66.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 14–6 Dmytro Derevynskyi Dmytro Derevynskyi has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:02What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-6 in 20
Lobas
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1601 vs Derevynskyi 1597
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 20% vs Derevynskyi 80%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 40% vs Derevynskyi 80%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas -1 · Derevynskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Lobas) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.50 / Derevynskyi 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lobas)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13073955
Lobas1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 108 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 87 of 111
Derevynskyi2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 40 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back28% 14 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas7wins
AwayDerevynskyi3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLobas leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas75%6 of 8
AwayDerevynskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas8Derevynskyi2n = 10Lobas took 8 of 10
S2Lobas3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Lobas7Derevynskyi3n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S4Lobas6Derevynskyi3n = 9Lobas took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasDerevynskyiL − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.337.4+3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 390 vs 475 / 86456.9%55%222 / 390 vs 475 / 864Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.50/Derevynskyi 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 22:05V. Lobas—11813133D. Derevynskyi—91111111
WAug 8 · 22:35V. Lobas—1113113D. Derevynskyi—61190
WJul 31 · 22:05V. Lobas—11814113D. Derevynskyi—4111221
WJul 11 · 02:05V. Lobas—81211123D. Derevynskyi—11102101
LJun 27 · 21:05V. Lobas—11911492D. Derevynskyi—911411113
LJun 19 · 22:05V. Lobas—128741D. Derevynskyi—101111113
LJun 6 · 02:35V. Lobas—1012891D. Derevynskyi—121011113
WMay 8 · 21:35V. Lobas—11712113D. Derevynskyi—7111061
WFeb 1 · 24:35V. Lobas—114811113D. Derevynskyi—31111952
WJan 17 · 24:05V. Lobas—111014113D. Derevynskyi—7121271
V. Lobas10
LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123WSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123LSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113LSep 2 · 04:05D. Derevynskyi1.57711111692K. Hrynenko2.25114518113
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