TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078911
Played Sep 6Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121178111214––
Oleksandr Gomilko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Oleksandr Gomilko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 85 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 33–37 Oleksandr Gomilko Valentyn Lobas has won 33 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:28What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gomilko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-37 in 70
Gomilko
Correct
gap of 4 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1643 vs Gomilko 1615
Lobas
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 60% vs Gomilko 40%
Lobas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 70% vs Gomilko 30%
Lobas
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas +2 · Gomilko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lobas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gomilko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.83 / Gomilko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lobas)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13078911
Lobas1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Gomilko1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas4wins
AwayGomilko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGomilko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas66.7%2 of 3
AwayGomilko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas3Gomilko7n = 10Gomilko took 7 of 10
S2Lobas7Gomilko3n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S3Lobas3Gomilko7n = 10Gomilko took 7 of 10
S4Lobas3Gomilko4n = 7Gomilko took 4 of 7
S5Lobas2Gomilko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasGomilkoL − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.740.1−1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasGomilkoBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 399 vs 321 / 57057.1%56.3%228 / 399 vs 321 / 570Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.83/Gomilko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gomilko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas—10118121O. Gomilko—12711143
LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas—69100O. Gomilko—1111123
WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas—1111113O. Gomilko—6580
LAug 29 · 04:05V. Lobas—71181372O. Gomilko—1181111113
LAug 23 · 03:05V. Lobas—710130O. Gomilko—1112153
WAug 22 · 04:05V. Lobas—1311117113O. Gomilko—15961182
LAug 16 · 03:05V. Lobas—11116892O. Gomilko—491111113
WAug 15 · 04:05V. Lobas—921111123O. Gomilko—111164102
WAug 8 · 21:05V. Lobas—11128113O. Gomilko—5101181
LAug 1 · 21:05V. Lobas—412921O. Gomilko—111011113
V. Lobas10
WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123WSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772LSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
O. Gomilko10
LSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123WSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451LSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113LSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113WSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123LSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141LSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090WSep 4 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.25910100O. Gomilko1.571112123LAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
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