TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073957
Played Sep 5Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6119111012––––
Oleksandr Gomilko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Oleksandr Gomilko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 59 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 33–35 Oleksandr Gomilko Valentyn Lobas has won 33 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:59What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lobas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-35 in 68
Gomilko
Correct
gap of 2 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1652 vs Gomilko 1615
Lobas
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 80% vs Gomilko 20%
Lobas
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 50% vs Gomilko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas +3 · Gomilko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lobas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gomilko form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.80 / Gomilko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lobas)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073957
Lobas1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 108 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 87 of 111
Gomilko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 26 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back44% 10 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas6wins
AwayGomilko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLobas leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas80%4 of 5
AwayGomilko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas5Gomilko5n = 10split evenly
S2Lobas8Gomilko2n = 10Lobas took 8 of 10
S3Lobas4Gomilko6n = 10Gomilko took 6 of 10
S4Lobas3Gomilko4n = 7Gomilko took 4 of 7
S5Lobas3Gomilko2n = 5Lobas took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasGomilkoL − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.138.5+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasGomilkoBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 393 vs 321 / 56857.3%56.5%225 / 393 vs 321 / 568Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.80/Gomilko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gomilko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas—1111113O. Gomilko—6580
LAug 29 · 04:05V. Lobas—71181372O. Gomilko—1181111113
LAug 23 · 03:05V. Lobas—710130O. Gomilko—1112153
WAug 22 · 04:05V. Lobas—1311117113O. Gomilko—15961182
LAug 16 · 03:05V. Lobas—11116892O. Gomilko—491111113
WAug 15 · 04:05V. Lobas—921111123O. Gomilko—111164102
WAug 8 · 21:05V. Lobas—11128113O. Gomilko—5101181
LAug 1 · 21:05V. Lobas—412921O. Gomilko—111011113
WAug 1 · 04:05V. Lobas—1111113O. Gomilko—6780
WJul 25 · 02:05V. Lobas—1111410113O. Gomilko—54111292
V. Lobas10
LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970WSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772LSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
O. Gomilko10
WSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143LSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123WSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451LSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113LSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113LSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141LSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090WSep 4 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.25910100O. Gomilko1.571112123LAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
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