TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078921
Played Sep 5Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111012811––––
Oleksandr Melashenko
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 75.3%
58 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 29–13 Oleksandr Melashenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 13 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Lobas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-13 in 42
Lobas
Wrong
gap of 16 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1654 vs Melashenko 1528
Lobas
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 80% vs Melashenko 60%
Lobas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 50% vs Melashenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas +1 · Melashenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Lobas) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.36 / Melashenko 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Lobas)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13078921
Lobas1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 109 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it78% 88 of 113
Melashenko3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 109 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas7wins
AwayMelashenko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLobas leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas77.8%7 of 9
AwayMelashenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas9Melashenko1n = 10Lobas took 9 of 10
S2Lobas6Melashenko4n = 10Lobas took 6 of 10
S3Lobas4Melashenko6n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S4Lobas4Melashenko3n = 7Lobas took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasMelashenkoL − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.133.0+6.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 395 vs 435 / 85657.2%50.8%226 / 395 vs 435 / 856Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.36/Melashenko 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.2%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melashenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 22:05V. Lobas—11109101O. Melashenko—91211123
LAug 30 · 01:35V. Lobas—811741O. Melashenko—11711113
WAug 23 · 24:05V. Lobas—1211113O. Melashenko—10340
WAug 21 · 23:05V. Lobas—1111113O. Melashenko—9840
LAug 15 · 02:05V. Lobas—117981O. Melashenko—21111113
WAug 2 · 03:05V. Lobas—13149113O. Melashenko—11121121
WJul 25 · 01:05V. Lobas—117912113O. Melashenko—911111092
WJul 11 · 23:35V. Lobas—121011113O. Melashenko—1012361
WJul 10 · 23:05V. Lobas—11119113O. Melashenko—491191
WJul 4 · 21:05V. Lobas—1411113O. Melashenko—12470
V. Lobas10
LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123WSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772LSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
O. Melashenko10
LSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113LSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113LSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101WSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141WSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113WSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101LSep 2 · 03:05O. Melashenko2.10111176102S. Khandetskyi1.67771111123
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