TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073798
Played Sep 4Finished
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4117111513711––
Oleksandr Melashenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeKostiantyn Hrynenko to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 79 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Kostiantyn Hrynenko at 56.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 33–31 Oleksandr Melashenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 31 of their 64 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hrynenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-31 in 64
Hrynenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1660 vs Melashenko 1495
Hrynenko
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 60% vs Melashenko 20%
Hrynenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 80% vs Melashenko 40%
Hrynenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko -1 · Melashenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hrynenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 1.73 / Melashenko 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Hrynenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13073798
Hrynenko1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 56 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it81% 46 of 57
Melashenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 106 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko5wins
AwayMelashenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko75%3 of 4
AwayMelashenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko4Melashenko6n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S2Hrynenko6Melashenko4n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S3Hrynenko5Melashenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Hrynenko3Melashenko5n = 8Melashenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoMelashenkoH − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.736.9+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 899 vs 432 / 85246.8%50.7%421 / 899 vs 432 / 852Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrynenkoHrynenko 1.73/Melashenko 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Hrynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melashenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 03:35K. Hrynenko—811491O. Melashenko—11911113
LAug 17 · 19:55K. Hrynenko—1361171O. Melashenko—15112113
WAug 15 · 01:05K. Hrynenko—13115123O. Melashenko—11611101
WAug 8 · 03:35K. Hrynenko—111111113O. Melashenko—133771
WAug 5 · 19:25K. Hrynenko—124119113O. Melashenko—101141182
LAug 3 · 18:55K. Hrynenko—116751O. Melashenko—81111113
LAug 1 · 23:35K. Hrynenko—1111781O. Melashenko—13811113
WJul 29 · 17:25K. Hrynenko—151111113O. Melashenko—177831
WJul 26 · 23:25K. Hrynenko—1211123O. Melashenko—103100
LJul 25 · 02:35K. Hrynenko—91080O. Melashenko—1112113
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990WSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113LSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.25910100O. Gomilko1.571112123WSep 2 · 04:05D. Derevynskyi1.57711111692K. Hrynenko2.25114518113
O. Melashenko10
LSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113LSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113LSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101WSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141WSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101LSep 2 · 03:05O. Melashenko2.10111176102S. Khandetskyi1.67771111123
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