TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055636
Played Sep 2Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111141151618911
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 16-18
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 103 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 56.8%
103 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 106–62 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 62 of their 168 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:35What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
106-62 in 168
Derevynskyi
Wrong
gap of 44 in 168, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1546 vs Hrynenko 1668
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 80% vs Hrynenko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 50% vs Hrynenko 90%
Hrynenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi +4 · Hrynenko -1
Derevynskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.57 / Hrynenko 2.25
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13055636
Derevynskyi1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 196 of 339
Up 2–0, closes it90% 91 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it72% 139 of 194
Hrynenko2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog43% won 154 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back26% 49 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi7wins
AwayHrynenko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayHrynenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi6Hrynenko4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Derevynskyi8Hrynenko2n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S3Derevynskyi7Hrynenko3n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Derevynskyi4Hrynenko2n = 6Derevynskyi took 4 of 6
S5Derevynskyi1Hrynenko2n = 3Hrynenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiHrynenkoD − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.934.3+5.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 857 vs 422 / 90254.8%46.8%470 / 857 vs 422 / 902Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.57/Hrynenko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 02:35D. Derevynskyi—1111123K. Hrynenko—98100
WAug 5 · 16:25D. Derevynskyi—1111113K. Hrynenko—7780
WAug 4 · 15:25D. Derevynskyi—1181111113K. Hrynenko—13117662
LJul 29 · 18:55D. Derevynskyi—117581K. Hrynenko—11111113
LJul 27 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi—711111192K. Hrynenko—117136113
WJul 22 · 23:05D. Derevynskyi—71311123K. Hrynenko—11118101
WJul 21 · 01:03D. Derevynskyi—1112113K. Hrynenko—71070
LJul 17 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi—91111992K. Hrynenko—119911113
WJul 15 · 18:55D. Derevynskyi—1111113K. Hrynenko—5980
WJul 8 · 16:25D. Derevynskyi—11117123K. Hrynenko—6511101
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990WSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113LSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113LSep 4 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.25910100O. Gomilko1.571112123
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