TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067648
Played Sep 3Finished
Roman Gnoevoy
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115811911113811
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:28 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 63–70 Dmytro Derevynskyi Roman Gnoevoy has won 63 of their 133 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:28What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
63-70 in 133
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1560 vs Derevynskyi 1538
Gnoevoy
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 60% vs Derevynskyi 80%
Derevynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 70% vs Derevynskyi 50%
Gnoevoy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy +3 · Derevynskyi -1
Gnoevoy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 2.00 / Derevynskyi 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067648
Gnoevoy2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog49% won 111 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 69
Derevynskyi1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 195 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it90% 88 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it72% 136 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGnoevoy4wins
AwayDerevynskyi6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoy75%3 of 4
AwayDerevynskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Gnoevoy3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Gnoevoy2Derevynskyi8n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Gnoevoy3Derevynskyi1n = 4Gnoevoy took 3 of 4
S5Gnoevoy2Derevynskyi1n = 3Gnoevoy took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricGnoevoyDerevynskyiG − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.736.7−6.0per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoyDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 820 vs 470 / 85850.2%54.8%412 / 820 vs 470 / 858Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiGnoevoy 2.00/Derevynskyi 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy—7490D. Derevynskyi—1111113
WAug 13 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy—11116113D. Derevynskyi—681191
LAug 4 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy—5870D. Derevynskyi—1111113
LJul 28 · 23:05R. Gnoevoy—8370D. Derevynskyi—1111113
WJul 26 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy—115811113D. Derevynskyi—71111892
LJul 8 · 15:25R. Gnoevoy—5960D. Derevynskyi—1111113
WJul 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy—1112123D. Derevynskyi—610100
WJul 7 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy—981111113D. Derevynskyi—11119882
LJul 1 · 17:55R. Gnoevoy—7560D. Derevynskyi—1111113
LJun 30 · 22:35R. Gnoevoy—11112982D. Derevynskyi—971111113
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182LSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113WSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680WSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111WSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113WSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161LSep 1 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.4061217113R. Gnoevoy2.7511101591LSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113WSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113LSep 2 · 04:05D. Derevynskyi1.57711111692K. Hrynenko2.25114518113
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