TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13051351
Played Sep 1Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9116111113––––
Roman Gnoevoy
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Naida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 61 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Oleksandr Naida at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 121–117 Roman Gnoevoy Roman Gnoevoy has won 117 of their 238 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:05What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gnoevoy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
121-117 in 238
Naida
Wrong
gap of 4 in 238, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1490 vs Gnoevoy 1532
Gnoevoy
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 80% vs Gnoevoy 60%
Naida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 50% vs Gnoevoy 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida -1 · Gnoevoy +3
Gnoevoy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Naida)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naida form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 1.83 / Gnoevoy 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Naida)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13051351
Naida1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Gnoevoy1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida2wins
AwayGnoevoy8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGnoevoy leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaidan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGnoevoy87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida2Gnoevoy8n = 10Gnoevoy took 8 of 10
S2Naida2Gnoevoy8n = 10Gnoevoy took 8 of 10
S3Naida4Gnoevoy6n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S4Naida4Gnoevoy2n = 6Naida took 4 of 6
S5Naida1Gnoevoy3n = 4Gnoevoy took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaGnoevoyN − GBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.040.7−4.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime488 / 945 vs 412 / 81951.6%50.3%488 / 945 vs 412 / 819Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NaidaNaida 1.83/Gnoevoy 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Naida · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 01:55O. Naida—812111362R. Gnoevoy—1114711113
LAug 28 · 19:35O. Naida—1141191R. Gnoevoy—13117113
LAug 28 · 03:55O. Naida—94120R. Gnoevoy—1111143
LAug 14 · 24:55O. Naida—1111119122R. Gnoevoy—139911143
LAug 11 · 16:55O. Naida—11471462R. Gnoevoy—5111112113
LAug 11 · 03:55O. Naida—61150R. Gnoevoy—1113113
WAug 6 · 23:25O. Naida—9111111113R. Gnoevoy—11137492
LAug 4 · 23:05O. Naida—6550R. Gnoevoy—1111113
WAug 3 · 22:55O. Naida—11119113R. Gnoevoy—931111
LJul 31 · 03:55O. Naida—8760R. Gnoevoy—1111113
O. Naida10
LSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113LSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830LSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 1 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.101111113O. Naida1.679940WSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162WAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.509111110112O. Naida1.50117812133WAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida2.6311612113S. Abalmaz1.447111071WAug 31 · 03:55O. Naida2.101111711113D. Derevynskyi1.6781311842
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182LSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113WSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680WSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113WSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113WSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161LSep 1 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.4061217113R. Gnoevoy2.7511101591LSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113
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